Rose Bowl Preview
One of the greatest exhibition games- to steal from Jack Moore- in professional sports will be played today in Pasadena, and this is a game that will not disappoint the lofty expectations that have been weighted on its shoulders. At 5:00 ET, the Oregon Ducks and Wisconsin Badgers will go at it, as the best team in the Pac-12 will look to establish dominance against the best team in the Big Ten. These are two teams with very different styles of play, and they reflect the respective conferences that they are in. The Ducks are all about speed and agility, while the Badgers are about size and brute strength. These two differing philosophies will be on display, and there really is no clear favorite heading into this game. That, and the sick jerseys, makes this such a special game to watch.
The Oregon Ducks have one of the fastest offenses in the league, and their dominance goes beyond the realms of college football. The Miami Heat utilize an Oregon-inspired spread-type offense in the NBA, and it’s working for the Heat so far.
The best player on the Ducks is LaMichael James, and he might just be one of the greatest players in conference history. James averages 7.4 yards per carry and is the best back in college football. However, the Badgers also have a guy who can make a very persuasive case for being the best running back in the land; Montee Ball.
Ball may not average 7.4 yards per carry, and his rushing average is a full yard under James’s. However, getting 6.4 yards on the ground every running play is still quite impressive. If that doesn’t please your taste buds, then his 38 total touchdowns (32 rushing, 6 receiving) ought to do the trick. This is a guy who finds the end zone on a regular basis and is two touchdowns away from breaking the record set by Barry Sanders.
The backup running backs can also run, as Oregon’s Kenjon Barner averages 6.3 yards per carry and has 11 rushing touchdowns of his own. Wisconsin’s James White is an oft-overlooked running back who has six touchdowns of his own and gets just over 5 yards per rush. The quarterbacks are also known for their abilities to take off with the football if necessary.
Speaking of which, it’s time to examine the two players who are at the most important position on the gridiron; the quarterbacks. I recently took the time to break down Russell Wilson as a player, and his statistics are quite impressive. He completes 52.4% of his passes from at least 15 yards out, and he completes 72.5% of his passes overall. Wilson averages 10.1 yards per attempt, 14.0 yards per completion, has 31 touchdowns and 3 picks for an adjusted yards per attempt total of 11.8, and he has an astounding passer efficiency rating of 191.6.
Darron Thomas isn’t a bad quarterback himself, and he has an overall passer rating of 155.2 with 30 touchdowns compared to just 6 interceptions. He isn’t quite as good as Wilson, but he manages to complete 49.2% of his passes from at least 15 yards out with 12 of those being touchdowns and one an interception. That’s good for a touchdown on 20.3% of his deep throws, and he throws an INT on a deep pass just 1.7% of the time; that’s incredible. He averages 7.9 yards per attempt and 8.9 per adjusted attempt, and the quality Thomas also averages 12.9 yards per completion with a 61.4% completion percentage.
Although Darron Thomas is a solid quarterback, it’s obvious that Russell Wilson is the better passer overall. He’s a special talent who should be a first or second rounder if people took the time to look past the concerns about his height.
The Badgers feature one of the best offensive lines in the league, while the Ducks are also solid on the line with solid players such as hero Mark Asper. After all, LaMichael James has the most rushes of over 30 yards since 2004 with 34 of those big plays on the ground- that’s a testament to some of his blocking (but mostly to the greatness of James). The Badgers have arguably the best line in college football with center Peter Konz, tackle Josh Oglesby, and the excellent Kevin Zeitler. These guys are warriors on the line and really punish defenses with their run blocking, but their play in pass protection lets Wilson down on occasion.
Each team gets production out of their receivers in a much different manner. Wisconsin has two star wideouts in Jared Abbrederis and Nick Toon who provide basically all the team’s production, while the Ducks have four different players with over 400 receiving yards. Wisconsin has three star players in the secondary in safeties Aaron Henry and Shelton Johnson and star corner Antonio Fenelus, but they don’t have much depth beyond those three. They may have a difficult time coping with four capable receivers.
The Ducks secondary, on the other hand, is one of the best secondaries in the land. They are seven deep in the secondary and have an elite safety duo of their own with Eddie Pleasant and John Boyett. Pleasant is one of the top cover men in the country at the back and has 11 tips and 3 picks this season. The Ducks have the depth and speed in the defensive backfield to contain Abbrederis and Toon.
Both team’s front sevens could get exploited in this game on run defense. The Badgers have two great linebackers in Mike Taylor and Chris Borland, but their defensive line is awful. They are solid against the run overall and give up 3.9 yards per attempt, but I don’t know that they can contain James, Barner, and De’Anthony Thomas.
The Ducks are arguably the best team against the run in the nation statistically and give up a meager 3.6 yards per rush, but they have yet to face an offensive line that is as dominant and strong as Wisconsin’s. They have the talent in the front seven and the speed, but they had better hope that their speed can overcome their relative lack of strength against one of the top lines in the country.
The big difference in this game, and what could be the difference maker, is the disparity between both team’s pass rushes. The Badgers have only generated 23 sacks this season and only two players have at least four sacks on the team. The Ducks offensive line is, as stated earlier, solid and won’t have any trouble keeping Thomas’s jersey clean.
Unfortunately for the Badgers, the Ducks don’t have similar struggles in the pass rushing department. They have brought down the quarterback 40 times this season and are third in the nation with 3.1 sacks per game. Although the Badgers are the best run blocking team in the country and are decent enough in pass protection, they do have lapses in pass pro and will give up a sack or two in a rough spot. But, more importantly, Russell Wilson is a guy who struggles under pressure when he is in the pocket. If he feels the heat and there is junk around his feet- a Michigan State reference- he will make poor decisions. Wilson is much less accurate in this situation, and his mechanics change for the worse. He sees that there is no real passing lane and starts to basically throw the ball into no man’s land. Wilson is a terrific bootleg passer who can lengthen plays while on the run and hit his receivers while running. However, his pocket presence is still a work in progress; the Ducks can, and should, take advantage of that.
This game is going to come down to both of these defenses’ respective abilities to stop the opposition. We know that these are two of the premier offenses in college football, and Wisconsin’s offense is the best in college football. If you don’t believe me, then I’m guessing you have never watched Russell Wilson throw a football or Montee Ball run guys over on his way to six more points.
In any case, this Rose Bowl matchup is all about which defense can get the key stops and the timely turnovers. The Ducks force more turnovers (2.1 per game to 1.8 per game), but the Badgers commit an insanely low amount of mistakes per game (just 0.6 compared to 1.4 from the Ducks). After all, Russell Wilson only throws a pick on 1.1% of his attempts; that is incredible. The Ducks allow 4.9 yards per play, which is just 0.1 more yards than the Badgers. This is due to penalties, as the Ducks give up 7.5 more yards off of penalties than the Badgers per game.
However, intangibles go the other way too; the Ducks have the best special teams in college football. They may have a worse kicker, but they average 3.7 more yards per punt and are more dynamic on returns. De’Anthony Thomas has two kickoff return touchdowns this season and averages 27.7 yards per return, and LaMichael James has also added a punt return touchdown this year.
It is almost impossible to predict a game when both teams are so close to eachother in terms of talent. The Pac-12 ESPN blog picked the Badgers in a 35-30 game, while the Big Ten blog had the same score but picked the Ducks to win it. I’ll bet against the better offensive team and bank on Oregon’s defense to make the key plays to help the Ducks win it. The advanced stats say that the Ducks are the marginally better team, and I agree with them. Their pass rush clinches it for me. I don’t feel comfortable about picking against either of these teams, but I believe in the Ducks. I always pick the better team, especially when looking at overall talent, and Oregon is simply just a hair better than Wisconsin.
Prediction: Oregon Ducks 34 Wisconsin Badgers 31
Rose Bowl MVP: LaMichael James
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