Oregon Ducks QB Competition
1. Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey is the one of the top experts on anything, but he’s mainly a hero to stat geeks like me. But the subject of this question has nothing to do with statistics, since the main topic is Marcus Mariota. Morey tweeted that scouts need to avoid player comparisons, because this leads to biases and that it is difficult to peg various players to others due to unique qualities. However, “comps” are still a nice fun thing to do and give a general idea of a player’s ability. That said, do you buy the comparisons of Marcus Mariota to Darron Thomas? If so, why? If not, then why not? Who is a better comparison for Mariota and what are the qualities that both possess? Personally, are you a fan of player comparisons and what are the strengths and limitations to them?
Comparisons are a shorthand, a metaphor we use in translating the future, unseen and unknown, into something tangible. When we say a freshman quarterback is like Darron Thomas, or a defensive tackle who has never played a down could be the next Haloti Ngata, we know we’re being audacious, but we’re fans. That’s what we do. If you can’t be optimistic and concoct bold visions for the future, why are you still breathing and buying season tickets? Invest and believe. It’s far better than taking up space and waiting to die.
In Mariota’s case, all comparisons and projections are pure conjecture. Practice was closed all during his redshirt year, and like Chip Kelly’s proverbial teabag, he hasn’t spent a minute in hot water. No one knows how he’ll respond to his first live snap or a jailbreak blitz in his face. All we have to go on are seven minutes of video, more closely watched and studied among Duck fans than the grainy images of a murder in Dealy Plaza a generation ago. Spring practice is still a month away and we all have our our conspiracy theories about the quarterback competition, convoluted and speculative as they may be.
I think Mariota has better tools and technique than Darron Thomas. His high school quarterbacks coach, Vinnie Passas, has been churning out Division One quarterbacks for 20 years. Here’s a telling fact about Marcus: he had to wait until his senior year to start, because he had another D-1 prospect ahead of him, and he came out in his senior year and threw 32 tds with just five interceptions, while running for over 700 yards. That shows tremendous competitive fire, exceptional intelligence in preparation, and uncommon character. Mariota didn’t sulk on the bench. He studied. He waited his turn. And then he exploded, gaining the attention and respect of one the best quarterback evaluators in the country, Oregon’s head coach Chip Kelly. A young quarterback with that kind of will and warrior mentality is worth noticing, worth making bold comparisons about.
In his video, Mariota displays incredible touch. He makes a variety of throws with accuracy, knows when to take something off the ball, leads receivers in stride, can zip the 30-yard route into the seam and fire the 25-yard out. He throws extremely well on the run, with a trustworthy motion and excellent mechanics. And he can run. He’s fast, physical and decisive running the football, with good vision. He trusts his speed. At 6-4, 200 as a freshman he’s taller than Thomas, faster than Thomas, and a better thrower with a bigger arm. If you want to make a comparison, the most accurate and reasonable among the limited sample of Oregon spread quarterbacks is Dennis Dixon. Put Mariota somewhere between Thomas and Dixon in terms of physical ability.
But that’s an incomplete comparison–what you can’t measure at this point is the part Thomas excelled at: toughness, leadership and winning games. Whatever DT lacked as a pure passer, he was superlative at distributing the ball to his playmakers and standing in and taking a hit. He was 23-3 as a starter, led his team to two BCS bowls and the first Rose Bowl win in 95 years. Bennett and Mariota have to earn accomplishments like these before any of our comparisons matter. Right now Darron Thomas is the most accomplished quarterback in Oregon football history, and the two young ones are message board chatter. The Spring Game will tell a lot about how they handle competition and pressure, and how well they’ve progressed in their command of the offense.
2. This is premature and there are a lot of factors involved, but do you think Mariota has an NFL future? What are the chances of him making it to the NFL or even to an All Pac-12 team?
Scouting is projecting, and so are recruiting evaluations. There are a lot of unknowns in the way of that question, and a certain amount of naivete. But it’s the off season. If we don’t speculate, conjecture and project there’s nothing to talk about.
First some perspective: about 250,000 seniors play high school football. Maybe 2500 will get Division One scholarships (116 schools, 20-25 scholarships per school, with the service academies not awarding football scholarships). 234 players get drafted by the NFL every spring (7 rounds, 32 teams). Half of them won’t make the cut. Purely based on numbers, Mariota’s chances of making the NFL or even All-PAC-12 are slim. Everyone’s are. The raw numbers don’t measure heart or desire.
If he stays healthy and applies himself, Mariota’s odds are better than most. He’s a great fit for the system he plays in. He’s tall, has good mechanics and a strong arm. He’s intelligent, an honor roll student in high school. He’s playing for a terrific coaching staff and surrounded by talent that’s won three straight conference championships.
But before we can start taking about the young Hawaiian as a potential all-conference player or NFL prospect, he has to beat out Bennett, Rodrigues and Lockie. And he knows that.
3. Now this is the money question. Who is the most talented of these four Ducks quarterbacks: Bryant Bennett, Mariota, Jake Rodrigues, or Jeff Lockie? Who do you think deserves to start?
Talented? Mariota has the best package of skills for a spread quarterback. He’s the most pure dual threat in terms of throwing ability and speed. Rodrigues has the biggest arm. Bennett has the advantage of two full years in the system, six games live contact and experience. He’s a nimble runner who can make plays with his legs, has good instincts for when to take off and create on his own. He broke some big plays in limited duty last season, showing the ability to see a lane coming out of the pocket and exploit it, something that really discourages a defense. In all he average 8.7 yards a carry, threw 6 touchdowns without an interception and completed 54% of his passes. He’ll have to improve on that last number to be successful as a full-time starter, but it’s highly likely he would do so.Lockie is the least physically talented of the four, smaller at 6-2 175, but the kid threw for 3278 yards and 31 touchdowns in his senior year. He’s a leader and competitor who won’t back down to any of the other three, outplaying two five-star recruits coming out the East Bay Athletic League in high school.Fans know from before that Kelly is no respecter of expectations or pecking order in a quarterback competition. He’ll choose the one who gives the Ducks the best chance to win, and he’ll pick a clear number one. The decision will be based on their body of work through last year, spring practice, the Spring Game, summer workouts, and fall camp. He’ll consult Helfrich, Greatwood and Frost. Writers, fans and boosters will have their usual input, which is none.
There’s a lot at stake. With a veteran, experienced roster everywhere else and a favorable schedule, the Ducks have a very good chance of repeating as North Division champions and competing for the conference title and another BCS bowl. The new quarterback has to get acclimated and develop command of the offense. He’ll have four imminently winnable games at the beginning of the season to get comfortable and establish himself. Then on November 3rd, he has to lead his team into the L.A. Coliseum to face Matt Barkley and the Trojans, the only conference opponent Darron Thomas ever lost to as a starter.
When the competing and speculating and tea leaf reading is done, Chip Kelly will announce Bryan Bennett as the starter. Two years ago, however, I thought he’d pick Nate Costa. It’s a forward-thinking operation. The winner is likely to be a hell of a quarterback.
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