2012 NIT: LSU and Oregon

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1. The reason why we’re in the NIT is because of that loss to Colorado. What happened in that game and what can the Ducks do to avoid that happening? LSU is a weaker opponent, but the Ducks didn’t exactly put their best foot forward against the Buffs.

Oregon outrebounded Colorado by 13 and outshot them by 13.  The Ducks lost to Colorado because they had an astoundingly bad shooting performance.  They finished under 40% for the game, but were only that high because of the late run.  Devoe Joseph was 1-11 at one point, and Sim and Singler weren’t much better.  When all of those guys shoot poorly, Oregon is toast.  Even worse, the Ducks were 4-22 from the three point line, making none after the ten minute mark of the first half.  LSU is actually better than Colorado defensively, ranking 23 in defensive efficiency (91.8 points per 100 possessions) to Colorado’s 35th (93.5/100 poss).  That said, a lot of Oregon’s struggles had to do with Colorado’s defense, instead the just missed a lot of open shots.    As long as Oregon shoots the ball at a competent clip, they should be able to beat LSU at home, though the Tigers’ defense should ensure its not a blowout.

2. A UCLA blogger and I were having a discussion about Stanford and UCLA, and we decided that UCLA should have made it in the NIT over Stanford. Do you agree with us, or are both teams in the right spot?

It doesn’t really matter.  UCLA has a lot more issues going on than worrying about whether they got an NIT berth.  UCLA basketball should never, ever be this bad.  If I were them, I’d be finding a new AD and head coach.  There really isn’t much difference between the two resumes, other then the though that Stanford probably overachieved, while the Bruins massively underachieved.

3. Last two questions. How far do Cal and Colorado end up going in the NCAA Tournament? If Washington and Oregon end up in a death match to see who wins their region of the bracket, very plausible, who wins?

I don’t think either Colorado or Cal make it very far.  I wouldn’t expect any of them to make it to the second weekend.  There are reasons that the Pac-12 was so bad this season, and both teams are too inconsistent to make a serious run to the second weekend.  I actually think there is  a great chance we see UW/UO matchup in the NIT quarterfinals.  Personnel wise, I don’t think UW is a great matchup for Oregon, but the Ducks have a much better coach and play much more consistent defense.  You have to give UW the edge in Seattle, but a Duck win wouldn’t shock me in the least.

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