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	<title>Autzen Zoo &#187; Joe Soriano</title>
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	<description>An Oregon Ducks Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and more.</description>
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		<title>Oregon Ducks Football: Advanced Statistics Favor Ducks</title>
		<link>http://autzenzoo.com/2012/12/16/oregon-ducks-football-advanced-statistics-favor-ducks/</link>
		<comments>http://autzenzoo.com/2012/12/16/oregon-ducks-football-advanced-statistics-favor-ducks/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Dec 2012 17:53:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Joe Soriano</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Oregon Ducks Football]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://autzenzoo.com/?p=3628</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The Oregon Ducks missed out on the Rose Bowl and the National Championship, but they will still be playing the Kansas State Wildcats in the Fiesta Bowl. It isn&#8217;t what the Ducks had in mind, especially given just how well this team performed overall this season. I am a huge stat geek, and my favorite [...]</p><p><a href="http://autzenzoo.com/2012/12/16/oregon-ducks-football-advanced-statistics-favor-ducks/">Oregon Ducks Football: Advanced Statistics Favor Ducks</a> - <a href="http://autzenzoo.com">Autzen Zoo</a> - <a href="http://autzenzoo.com">Autzen Zoo - An Oregon Ducks Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and more.</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Oregon Ducks missed out on the Rose Bowl and the National Championship, but they will still be playing the Kansas State Wildcats in the Fiesta Bowl. It isn&#8217;t what the Ducks had in mind, especially given just how well this team performed overall this season. I am a huge stat geek, and my favorite statistic to evaluate teams in college sports in S<a href="http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb">ports Reference&#8217;s SRS</a> (Simple Rating System). It isn&#8217;t the be-all, end-all of statistics (there is no such thing), but it is a great stat and one that presents some interesting findings about the Ducks 2012 season.</p>
<div id="attachment_3629" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/168/files/2012/12/6785774.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-3629" title="NCAA Football: Oregon at Oregon State" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/168/files/2012/12/6785774-300x450.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="450" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
<p>According to SRS, the Oregon Ducks were the best team in the 2012 college football season with a score of 23.84. The Alabama Crimson Tide was close behind with a score of 23.15, but no other team had a score of 20. Notre Dame finished third at 19.19, Kansas State fourth, and Florida fifth.</p>
<p>To be honest, I completely agree with that ranking based on what I saw this CFB season. Well, I do find it difficult to place the Ducks first, but the advanced stats are just another way of looking at. SRS takes into account strength of schedule, margin of victory, and rate statistics (yards per play for and allowed) and the overall rankings have more merit than the BCS rankings. In all honesty, I trust advanced metrics more than I do a computer with metrics that are unconfirmed and random opinions. I don&#8217;t actually have a beef with the BCS system and I feel like the best teams are playing in the NC, but I also love to dig into the numbers.</p>
<p>So let&#8217;s do a little more digging. The Ducks were the third best offense team in the nation per OSRS, behind Louisiana Tech and Baylor. On defense, Oregon ranked in the top 25 at 24 mostly due to a top 15 pass defense. Oregon&#8217;s run defense, on the other hand, was ranked outside the top 60. The rushing offense was second just behind Texas A&amp;M, and the Ducks passing attack was just outside the top 25 in at 26th.</p>
<p>The advanced numbers do place the Oregon Ducks at the top of the tables (at least, SRS does), but they give an honest look at this team. The Ducks run defense could have stood to improve, and the passing attack wasn&#8217;t elite (it didn&#8217;t need to be, anyway, and 26th isn&#8217;t a bad place either). To me, the biggest flaw on this team was the lack of a kicker, and I think you can point to that as one of the reasons why this team isn&#8217;t playing in the National Championship. With a better kicking game, they probably would have defeated the Stanford Cardinal (8th in SRS, just in case you were wondering).</p>
<p>Losing by three points to a top ten team isn&#8217;t something to be ashamed of, especially since the Ducks still managed to be one of the best teams in the nation after losing stars like Darron Thomas and LaMichael James. And oh by the way, other key players in Carson York, Avery Patterson, and John Boyett sustained severe injuries during the year.</p>
<p>The Ducks were the best team in the league statistically, but they didn&#8217;t close off the game that mattered most. Alabama lost to a slightly better team in Texas A&amp;M, and I think that&#8217;s why the Crimson Tide was ranked higher (I&#8217;m avoiding pointing to SEC bias). To be honest, I would have ranked Oregon above &#8216;Bama and tabbed the Ducks to win the NC (better advanced numbers, their loss was by a closer margin), but I can definitely see the logic in ranking Alabama over Oregon.</p>
<p>What I can&#8217;t see is the logic behind ranking Florida third over Oregon, because that makes little sense to me. The numbers paint the accurate picture of the Ducks being better this year. Don&#8217;t get me wrong, the Gators had a great season, but the only clear advantages they hold are a better strength of schedule and better defense. But in my mind, those two advantages are negated by the clear gap in class between Oregon&#8217;s vaunted offense and Florida&#8217;s offense that was ranked 50th per SRS.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2012-ratings.html">Football Outsiders</a> advanced statistics FEI and S&amp;P+ both have the Oregon Ducks in second, but behind two different teams. S&amp;P+ has the Tide on top, while Oregon&#8217;s Fiesta Bowl opponents KSU lead in FEI.</p>
<p><strong><em>You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/SorianoJoe">@SorianoJoe</a>.</em></strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Oregon Ducks Football: Leon McQuay III visiting USC Trojans</title>
		<link>http://autzenzoo.com/2012/12/16/oregon-ducks-football-leon-mcquay-iii-visiting-usc-trojans/</link>
		<comments>http://autzenzoo.com/2012/12/16/oregon-ducks-football-leon-mcquay-iii-visiting-usc-trojans/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Dec 2012 16:38:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Joe Soriano</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Oregon Ducks Football]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://autzenzoo.com/?p=3632</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Top 2013 recruit Leon McQuay III is on an official visit this weekend to the USC Trojans, and it is the final official trip of McQuay&#8217;s highly talked about recruitment. The top 50 prospect is one of the Oregon Ducks top remaining targets, and Chip Kelly was one of a few coaches to have sat [...]</p><p><a href="http://autzenzoo.com/2012/12/16/oregon-ducks-football-leon-mcquay-iii-visiting-usc-trojans/">Oregon Ducks Football: Leon McQuay III visiting USC Trojans</a> - <a href="http://autzenzoo.com">Autzen Zoo</a> - <a href="http://autzenzoo.com">Autzen Zoo - An Oregon Ducks Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and more.</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Top 2013 recruit Leon McQuay III is on an official visit this weekend to the USC Trojans, and it is the final official trip of McQuay&#8217;s highly talked about recruitment. The top 50 prospect is one of the Oregon Ducks top remaining targets, and Chip Kelly was one of a few coaches to have sat down with the elite four-star safety prospect. Two of the others were Jimbo Fisher and Lane Kiffin, with Florida State also being one of the finalists.</p>
<div id="attachment_3633" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/168/files/2012/12/6787834.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-3633" title="NCAA Football: Notre Dame at Southern California" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/168/files/2012/12/6787834-300x204.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="204" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
<p>It all comes down to Oregon, USC, FSU, Michigan, and Vanderbilt for Leon McQuay, and many analysts believe that he is a Vandy lean partially due to academics. McQuay is very intelligent, and that can be seen on tape. He is, in my mind, the smartest defensive back in this recruiting class and has all the tools to be an elite free safety at the collegiate level. McQuay has great instincts, solid ball skills, is terrific as a pure coverage guy, and he has more than adequate athletic ability.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s no wonder why McQuay has been so touted, and he would be a huge addition to Oregon&#8217;s recruiting class- or any team&#8217;s class for that matter. USC could still keep Max Redfield, as the elite safety is currently between the Trojans and Irish. The common thought is that USC cannot keep both players, but it could happen. So this official visit is crucial for him as a player, USC when looking at the big picture, and has a trickle-down effect on Redfield (Oregon stopped recruiting him).</p>
<p>McQuay is rated by most publications as the third best safety in the 2013 recruiting class, and he is easily a top 40 recruit overall and a top ten player in the state of Florida. He has been busy lighting it up for an elite Armwood squad and also owns a great football pedigree.</p>
<p>Oregon fans need to keep close tabs on the news that comes out of this visit to USC, because it has a huge impact on Oregon&#8217;s potential incoming class in 2013. The Ducks currently have just 11 commits and are behind the curve, but they always finish strong. The Ducks get a large amount of their commits late in the recruiting period, which makes the decisions by guys like McQuay all the more crucial for this program.</p>
<p><strong><em>You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/SorianoJoe">@SorianoJoe</a>.</em></strong></p>
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		<title>Oregon Ducks Basketball stifles Nebraska Cornhuskers 60-38</title>
		<link>http://autzenzoo.com/2012/12/16/oregon-ducks-basketball-stifles-nebraska-cornhuskers-60-38/</link>
		<comments>http://autzenzoo.com/2012/12/16/oregon-ducks-basketball-stifles-nebraska-cornhuskers-60-38/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Dec 2012 15:21:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Joe Soriano</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Oregon Ducks Basketball]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://autzenzoo.com/?p=3630</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The Oregon Ducks continue to play suffocating defense, and they held down the Nebraska Cornhuskers to just 38 points in a 60-38 victory that puts the Ducks up to 9-1 on the season. Despite the 22-point blowout victory, head coach Dana Altman was not impressed with the team&#8217;s offensive performance as a whole, &#8220;“We took [...]</p><p><a href="http://autzenzoo.com/2012/12/16/oregon-ducks-basketball-stifles-nebraska-cornhuskers-60-38/">Oregon Ducks Basketball stifles Nebraska Cornhuskers 60-38</a> - <a href="http://autzenzoo.com">Autzen Zoo</a> - <a href="http://autzenzoo.com">Autzen Zoo - An Oregon Ducks Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and more.</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Oregon Ducks continue to play suffocating defense, and they held down the Nebraska Cornhuskers to just 38 points in a 60-38 victory that puts the Ducks up to 9-1 on the season. Despite the 22-point blowout victory, head coach Dana Altman <a href="http://oregon.247sports.com/Article/The-Ducks-beat-Nebraska-60-38-but-Dana-Altman-wasnt-pleased-106963">was not impressed</a> with the team&#8217;s offensive performance as a whole, &#8220;“We took some bad threes early and then finally hit one late there. Freshmen are going to struggle and you’d expect your vets to be a little better. But we haven’t shot it well this year. A lot of it is shot selection which needs to continue to improve. We are a better shooting team than we showed.”</p>
<div id="attachment_3631" class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 310px"><a href="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/168/files/2012/12/6829818.jpg"><img class="size-medium wp-image-3631" title="NCAA Basketball: Idaho State at Oregon" src="http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/168/files/2012/12/6829818-300x199.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="199" /></a><p class="wp-caption-text">Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports</p></div>
<p>Altman is being too tough on the team here, but he does have a point. The Ducks took 13 three-pointers in this game, and they only connected on two of them with both makes coming from star E.J. Singler (2-3). His knock on the freshmen struggling is likely directed at Dominic Artis&#8217;s 0-4 line from downtown, and he shot just 30.8% from the floor with four turnovers.</p>
<p>Nebraska was even worse, as they shot 30.6% from the floor as a team and chucked up plenty of bricks from deep territory as well. Ray Gallegos played in all 40 minutes and finished with a 1-8 line from three, which is absolutely atrocious.</p>
<p>The Ducks received their best performance from Tony Woods, who continues his strong season after posting a 7-11 line on the Huskers to go with a pair of blocks. Altman heaped plenty of praise on both Woods and Arsalan Kazemi, who continues to be a monster down low. He&#8217;s been the best rebounder in the conference and had a whopping 17 boards in this game to go with four steals (!) and ten points on just four shots.</p>
<p>Kazemi has been the best player in the Pac-12 in my opinion, because his 31.1 PER leads the league as does his total rebounding percentage. The Iranian has the league&#8217;s best defensive rating, the best steal percentage, and the second best offensive rating. Kazemi simply does it all, and Oregon is lucky to have him after he transferred from the Rice Owls. He has been a revelation for the Ducks, just as Devoe Joseph was last season. Except now, the Ducks get their man for the full season instead of just conference play.</p>
<p>The Ducks need to play more efficiently on offense because that type of play isn&#8217;t going to work against better teams. I mean, not everybody the Ducks face is going to shoot 30% from the floor like Nebraska did. It was a great win for the defense and &#8220;a win is a win&#8221;, but at the same time Altman needs to keep the guys focused and look at the bigger picture with regards to offensive efficiency.</p>
<p>Oregon has a top 20 defense this season, but their offensive rating is hovering at around 60th. That needs to improve a bit more if this team is to reach their full potential, especially since they have had an incredibly easy schedule to this point. The Ducks have been playing like a top 25 team this season, but that&#8217;s mainly because they have been beating up on easy competition. I love where this team is headed and would strongly consider ranking them in the top 25, but there is still some work that needs to be done.</p>
<p><strong><em>You can follow Joe Soriano on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/SorianoJoe">@SorianoJoe</a>.</em></strong></p>
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