Oregon Ducks at Arizona State Sun Devils

After getting pounded by a much better California team in their last game, the Oregon Ducks need one of these games against one of the worst teams in the conference. The Ducks are about an average team, but the Arizona State Sun Devils are far from average. They are one of the worst defensive teams in the country, and they aren’t much better offensively either. Their 5-10 record reflects this, as well as their average of 63.6 points per game. California crushed all of the Ducks momentum that was gained after an 11-point win against Stanford, and Oregon will get some of that back and blow out one of the worst teams in the country- not just in the conference.

Even though the team is poor on a whole, there are some bright spots on this roster. Jonathan Gilling has a true shooting percentage of 66.8%, and Keala King is one of the league leaders in assist rate to go with his 18.9 PER. Trent Lockett is the de facto star of the team with a 19.3 PER and is one of the more valuable offensive players in the Pac-12.

While the Sun Devils may be able to shoot the ball, their defense negates the good that Lockett and King do on offense. Nobody on this team is an above-average defensive player, and Lockett would not be the best defensive player on most teams in college basketball.

Devoe Joseph, E.J. Singler, and Garrett Sim are three star players with PERs over 20, and these three will control the game at the Wells Fargo Arena at 10:30 PM ET in Tempe, Arizona. Sim has been playing at a high level this season in his senior year, and his 70.8 true shooting percentage is fourth in the conference. He leads the Pac-12 with two offensive win shares, which means that he adds two wins to his team based on his offense alone. He is, however, the worst defensive player on the team of all the players who receive significant playing time.

Joseph has made Ducks fans forget about Jabari Brown, and he has been the star of the team ever since transferring to Eugene. His defense is not where most of us want it to be at, but that’s hardly much of a complaint when he has a 21.0 PER and has been worth exactly one win on offense in ten games. If we adjust his win shares for 16 games, then Devoe Joseph would be worth 2.1 wins.

The Oregon Ducks are clearly the better team in this game, and they will win 75-61 with Sim torching the Sun Devils with around 20 points. Arizona State cannot cope with three great offensive players, and they don’t have enough on offense to take advantage of a below-average Ducks defense.

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