Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans

The 5-13 USC Trojans will travel to the Matt Court at 5:30 PM PT to take on the 13-5 Oregon Ducks. The Trojans are 0-5 in conference play and are almost as bad as the Utah Utes, while the Ducks are 4-2 in conference play and are one of the top four teams in the Pac-12 right now based on overall play (not record). The Ducks have swept the Trojans in their last four meetings, and they are looking to make it five in a row against one of the worst offensive teams in the country.

That last sentence is no understatement, because USC’s offensive rating is 327th in the country out of 344 schools. Aaron Fuller and Dewayne Dedmon are their only two players with above-average PERs, and they average just 53.6 points per game (341st in the country). Simply stating they can’t score is an understatement, and their 39.7% field goal percentage and 30% three point percentage serve to show their futility. They hit just under 60% of their shots from the free throw line and average just 28.7 boards per game. Again, Fuller and Dedmon are the only two players on the team who average over five rebounds per game.

The theme is easy to see; the Trojans simply can’t score. They are, however, one of the better defensive teams in the country with Dedmon leading the way and Fuller, Byron Wesley, Maurice Jones, and Garrett Jackson also making plays on defense. Dedmon is easily their star on defense and is third in the conference in defensive win shares. Fuller and Wesley are sixth and tenth respectively, and Fuller also leads the team with a 20.4 PER.  Dedmon is slightly better in terms of standard efficiency statistics such as true shooting percentage, and his PER is a more than respectable 18.5.

Meanwhile, the Oregon Ducks learned quite a bit from their near collapse against Arizona five days ago. They were by far the more efficient team, but they were outrebounded and got sloppier in the second half. They were able to hang on in a disappointing yet somewhat encouraging win. Last year, the Ducks would have blown such a game and have their spirits crushed. This year, they were able to pull it out and win by two. E.J. Singler was terrific and dished out seven assists while hauling in four rebounds in an efficient 12-point display.

Singler has been doing work this season, and he is tied with Devoe Joseph for the team lead with a 20.6 PER. He is currently eighth during conference play in rebounds per game, while Joseph is eighth in points per game in Pac-12 play. Singler has the second most defensive win shares on the team and the second most win shares overall.

The Ducks may be mediocre on defense, but they are slowing gaining steam on offense. The big three of Garrett Sim, Singler, and Joseph are extremely difficult to contain and all of them have offensive ratings of over 110. Sim is fifth in the conference with a 126 ORtg and is tied with Justin Cobbs for the league lead in offensive win shares (2.1). Sims’ defense pushes him down to seventh in overall win shares, but he has been the team’s best player on a whole this season.

The Oregon Ducks will absolutely demolish a much weaker foe, and the lifeless USC Trojans will flounder against a far better offensive team. The Trojans have defense, but they have no offense and will lose 68-53 in Eugene. Consider this an easy victory for the Ducks and one that will boost them to five wins in conference play.

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