Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Basketball

The women’s basketball team wasn’t able to dispatch their rivals in the Civil War, so now it is up to the Oregon Ducks men’s team to avoid getting swept by their most hated rivals. This game at 4:30 PM PT in Corvallis has huge postseason ramifications, because the Oregon Ducks will have basically no shot at making the NCAA Tournament if they lose to the 5-10 Oregon State Beavers.

The Oregon Ducks, currently 10-5 in conference play, will have to try and solve a defensive scheme that has given them the fits. The Beavers 1-3-1 is extremely difficult to match-up against for the Oregon Ducks, so getting past this is a big key to victory.

Eric Moreland is a shutdown defensive player who rebounds about a fifth of the total rebounds available, blocks one out of every ten shots, and he allows just .916 points per possession against him. He is one of the keys to their defense, along with Jared Cunningham (.991 oPPP and 4.4 STL%).

Speaking of Cunningham, he and Devon Collier are as good of a two-headed monster as there is in the Pac-12. They are both responsible for 3.8 wins each, with Cunningham having the slightly higher win shares thanks to a higher volume of plays (26.7 USG%, 18.6 PPG for the guard). Collier has the higher PER (26.7 to 22.7), but he is the second man to the Cunningham show.

Devoe Joseph has a PER of 20.9 this season in 21 games, and he has been worth exactly three wins during that time (3.9 wins in 27 games based on his per game average). He is an efficient shooter and the team’s second best passer (Jonathan Lloyd and his 30.1 AST% is first) who leads the team with 16.3 points per game. Joseph shoots 43.9% from downtown and 82.9% from the line.

He isn’t the only efficient shooter on this team, as E.J. Singler and Garrett Sim both have higher TS%. Sim knocks down 44.4% of his three-pointers and 86.7% of his free throws, while Singler is one of the best free throw shooters in the country at an 89.5% clip.

Another one-and-done senior has made an impact this season for the Oregon Ducks, and that man is bench star Olu Ashaolu. His play has improved in recent weeks, and he is fourth on the team with a 17.1 PER to go with a .99 oPPP. He has a 55.7 eFG%, because he talks shots close to the rim. Ashaolu is a poor shooter overall and has a horrendous 52 FT%, but he is the team’s most efficient rebounder (15 TRB%).

Oregon State has four players who average double figures, as Ahmad Starks and Roberto Nelson average 11.9 and 10 pints per game respectively. Starks is a fairly mediocre player overall, mainly because his shot selection is suspect. He is less efficient than Nelson on a per-shot basis, but he averages more points per possession. This is because Starks only turns the ball over about 10% of the time, which is just fantastic. He takes care of the ball, but he doesn’t take good shots and isn’t as good of a defensive player as Nelson.

The Beavers and Oregon Ducks are evenly matched when looking at the overall efficiency statistics, because the Beavers are great on offense and average 1.09 points per play. However, the Oregon Ducks will be able to squeeze out a road victory and avoid the sweep, but it won’t be easy. Expect this to be a 72-71 game that goes down to the wire, with Devoe Joseph hitting the winning shot in a game that the Ducks were trailing most of the time. This is going to be a great game, and it is the most crucial game of the season for the Oregon Ducks so far.

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