Oregon Ducks Bubble Watch
By Ricky Widmer
At this point in time, many reports show that the Oregon Ducks would not make the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today. This is mostly because the Oregon Ducks have a RPI (Rating Percentage Index) rank of 47. Another thing that does not help Oregon is that they are 2-7 vs top 100 teams, and 0-5 vs top 50 teams. Despite all the people saying Oregon will not make the tournament, I believe they can still punch their ticket to the Big Dance. To do this, Oregon NEEDS to win their last two games of the regular season. These games would be two home games vs Colorado and Utah. Both of these games are winnable for the Oregon Ducks and I believe if they play smart then they will win both games. Here is how Oregon needs to play if they want to beat both Colorado and Utah.
First off, the #1 thing the Oregon Ducks need to do to beat Colorado and Utah is keep them off the foul line. In the game against Colorado, Oregon sent the Buffaloes to the foul line for a total thirty foul shots (23-30). In the game against Utah, Oregon sent the Utes to the foul line for a total of twenty-five foul shots (19-25). The last game against the Utes this did not hurt Oregon, but against the Buffaloes it bit Oregon right in the butt. In my opinion, this was mainly because of the free throw shooting of Askia Booker. In that game on February 4th, Booker went seven of eight from the foul line and is shooting a 76% on the entire season from there. Instead, the Oregon Ducks need to force their opponents to make shots off the foul line. In the last Colorado game, the Buffaloes were shooting a dismal 46.8% from the field and only won by one point in the end. Carlon Brown in that game for Colorado couldn’t hit the side of a burn. He was a terrible four of fourteen from the field and a zero of six from 3-point land. Oregon needs to be smart on the defensive end of the ball and not make mistakes that would send their opponents to the foul line because both Colorado and Utah can make them pay.
Second, Oregon needs to out rebound their opponents in their last two games. In both their previous games against Colorado and Utah, Oregon out rebounded their opponent. Who do the Oregon Ducks need to call upon to lead the way rebounding the ball? The answer to that question is easy, Olu Ashaolu and E.J. Singler. In the last game Oregon played against Colorado, Ashaolu and Singler had a big game rebounding the ball, nine and thirteen respectively. This whole season it has seemed like Oregon has had a “two-headed” attack on the boards. Defensively, it has been E.J. Singler doing his work with a total of one-hundred and nineteen defensive rebounds this season. In the last game against Colorado, this was the same story for Singler. In that game, Singler had twelve defensive rebounds. This is huge because of what it takes away from the opponent. In that game, Colorado was not hitting many of their shots from the field and with every defensive rebound by Singler it took away a second chance at points for Colorado. Offensively, it has been Oly Ashaolu doing damage on the offensive boards with fifty-two offensive rebounds this season. In the last game against Colorado, Ashaolu had four of the nine offensive rebounds for Oregon. Every offensive rebound will be huge for Oregon because of the fact that Colorado and Utah have not shot the ball well at all this season and it will give the Oregon Ducks an edge just because of how well they usually have shot the ball this season.
Finally, Oregon needs more than just one player in double figures in points. All Oregon fans can be assured that senior Devoe Joseph and junior E.J. Singler will come up and score in the double digits in the final two games of the season. However, in my opinion, the key player in these final two games is going to come from the Oregon bench. In my opinion, junior Carlos Emory needs to be a key part scoring for Oregon to help take the pressure off the starters. The type of performance I want to see from Emory is one much like he had against Washington on February 9th. In that game against Washington, Emory was seven of eight from the field and had sixteen points total. The starters for Oregon are going to play well, but Emory needs to be the push off the bench if the Oregon Ducks want to win their final two games.
Like I said earlier, both of the final two games for the Oregon Ducks are winnable. I believe the home game against Colorado will give the Oregon Ducks the bigger challenge. The Oregon Ducks are fighting an uphill battle to punch their ticket to the Big Dance, but I believe they will do it. I predict Oregon will have a close win against Colorado and a big win against Utah. I believe Oregon can be a tournament team, but they need to win out in order to be considered.
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Editor’s Note: I would like to warmly welcome our newest addition to the staff, Ricky Widmer. I am excited to have added him to our coverage of the Oregon Ducks, and, as you can see above, he is a talented writer with a deep knowledge of basketball.