Oregon Ducks Tournament Prediction

Last night, the Oregon Ducks suffered a tough loss at the hands of the Colorado Buffaloes in Los Angeles at the Pac-12 Conference Tournament from the Staples Center. This comes as a shock to many because of the fact that Oregon recently played very well against Colorado. A loss as big as this, for the Oregon Ducks, can be a hard pill to swallow, but it could have been avoided. Late in the game, Oregon was on a 10-0 run and took the lead in the closing seconds. Colorado then comes down the floor and takes a one point lead off of a complete nasty reverse layup by Andre Roberson. Oregon had thirteen seconds to make a game winning shot. Upon watching these last seconds, I was confused. I felt like I was watching the UCONN/West Virginia game where Shabazz Napier danced around and shot up a three ball instead of driving to the basket. Earlier in the game during the 10-0 run by Oregon, Devoe Joseph had a nice layup cutting between two Colorado defenders. Why didn’t Joseph try to cut to the basket again? In my mind, Devoe Joseph needed to take the ball in his hands and “put the team on his back.” He should of drove to the basket instead of dancing around the three point arc and basically losing the Pac-12 Conference Tournament title.

What does this say about the Oregon Ducks post-season chances? They either have three possibilities. They can either 1) make the NCAA Tournament, 2) make the NIT Tournament, or 3) make neither of those two tournaments. First, let’s look at if Oregon can make the NCAA Tournament and dance in March. In my opinion, the Oregon Ducks will not be dancing in March this season. Their resume just does not help them make the NCAA Tournament. Oregon needed to do well in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. Oregon needed to win at least two games in the conference tournament and with Washington losing to Oregon St. they had a chance to win the tournament all together. Also, their record against the top 50 is not that good. Oregon has just seemed like that team that had the potential to do great things, but were never able to do them. Oregon’s fate is left in the hands of the selection committee and that is not a good thing. The only way Oregon will make it into the tournament is if another bubble team messes up or if the committee gives a bid to Oregon over a team like Drexel.

On the bright side, post-season basketball will not be out of sight for the Oregon Ducks. Even though I believe their NCAA Tournament bid is rejected, Oregon can make it into the NIT Tournament. Right now Oregon sits in  the “last eight out” of the NCAA Tournament. This easily gives them a bid for the NIT Tournament. If being in the ‘last eight out” of the NCAA Tournament is not enough for them to be in the NIT Tournament, there is another way to look at it. Oregon finished with an overall record of 22-9 and a conference record of 13-5. Take all the “not good enough against the top 50” and throw it out the window because for the NIT Tournament that does not matter. Oregon has the record and the conference standing to be playing in the NIT Tournament. In my opinion, getting the NIT Tournament would be a better draw for the Oregon Duck because they would have a better chance to win. If the Oregon Ducks get into the NIT Tournament instead of the NCAA Tournament, I think that they could go farther than they could in the Big Dance.

In the end, I believe the Oregon Ducks will be playing post-season basketball this season. Right now, it is leaning that they will be playing in the NIT Tournament, but anything can happen. Oregon can be a scary team for sure. They have all the potential in the world to be a top Pac-12 team. If the Oregon Ducks make the NCAA Tournament on Selection Sunday, they will be out for blood. They will be a more focused team because they will feel that they were blessed to get a second chance to make a run for the national title. Now its the waiting game for Oregon…we’ll see what happens on Selection Sunday.

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