2012 NIT: Oregon Ducks and LSU

Tako of Addicted to Quack released his annual CHAMP Rating, and the Oregon Ducks were ranked 66th of 70 teams, with Colorado coming in 63rd, USF in 67th, and Western Kentucky in 70th. Cal? 35th. Washington? Not even ranked. So the Oregon Ducks are legitimate favorites to win it all, but standing in their way is LSU’s tough defense in the first round.

LSU (7-9 in SEC play) has a terrific defense and will keep this game close with their D, but they are putrid offensively and have just one decent offensive player; star center Justin Hamilton.

More importantly, Hamilton was one of the most valuable players in the conference and was worth over five wins. He is a terrific defense player who can shut down the interior, which means more outside shots and lower percentage shots. It also means for Anthony Hickey, who averages two steals per game and has a 4% steal rate.

Hamilton and Storm Warren are their only legitimate team stars, with Warren’s value coming mainly from the defensive end. Hickey and Johnny O’Bryant are both tough defensive players, with O’Bryant helping out Warren and Hamilton with crashing the boards. And boy, can O’Bryant rebound.

For all their defensive capabilities, I just don’t see them scoring many points against the Ducks. They are well below-average offensively, and there is a reason why they had a losing record in their conference. The Oregon Ducks get some quality defense out of E.J. Singler and Devoe Joseph, and Tony Woods is as good of a block-artist as there is in the game. He was one of the best defensive players in his conference, and he provides more offensive value than almost everybody on the Tigers.

Joseph, Singler, and Garrett Sim aren’t going to shoot like they did against Colorado, and the crazy thing is that the Ducks lost by just one point even when shooting so poorly during that game. As David Piper told me, all the Oregon Ducks have to do- as far as shooting goes- is to shoot at a reasonable (read: at least 40%) clip and play at least average defense (I am saying that). The Ducks will win this game 67-63, but LSU is going to give them everything and make it close.

Some relevant stats on the Tigers to get a better idea of their ability.

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