The Ducks Pac-12 Tournament matchup will be decided with the outcome of the Oregon State vs. Colorado game slated for Wednesday night in Vegas. Oregon has fared well against both the Beavers and Buffaloes this year going 2-0 in Civil Wars and 1-0 at home against the Buffs. But which team would you rather face if you were Dana Altman, the Buffaloes who were dangerous at home but struggled mightily on the road or the Beavers who showed promise in the final home game? And will the layoff of 8 days cause rust to appear in the Oregon team that has played it’s best basketball at the end of the season?
Potential Ducks Pac-12 Tournament Matchup: Colorado
March 9, 2013; Boulder, CO, USA; Colorado Buffaloes mascot Ralphie poses before the start of the game against the Oregon State Beavers at the Coors Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Colorado is an average rebounding team. I searched and searched for positives and I couldn’t find any, they are a bad basketball team. Outside of rebounds (both offensive and defensive) they rank outside of the top 150 teams in every other significant statistical category except blocks, where they rank 91st. They lost 16 games this year, in those games they lost by an average of over 11 points. In their 11 Pac-12 losses they averaged losing by over 14 points a game in conference play.
If Colorado somehow manages to beat Oregon State, which seems unlikely, the Ducks could shake off some of their rust and still win this game convincingly. Oregon is too efficient on the offensive side of the ball and too consistent to fall without a disastrous offensive performance.
Potential Ducks Pac-12 Tournament Matchup: Oregon State
Jan 8, 2015; Corvallis, OR, USA; Oregon State Beavers mascot Benji the Beaver plays with fans at the game against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers won 55-47. Mandatory Credit: Susan Ragan-USA TODAY Sports
It’d be a stretch to call the Beavers a good basketball team, but they are both a better team than Colorado and hold a distinct advantage over the Beavers when playing Oregon. While Oregon State’s offensive statistics are worse than bad, they are very good on defense. The games they win they hold their opponents under 65. The Beavers gave up more than 70 only 5 times. A huge vulnerability for the Beavs is their inability to secure defensive rebounds. If the Ducks can score second chance buckets against the Beavers, they’ll win.
However, this matchup would be a third matchup featuring the Ducks and the Beavers, which would force the Ducks to try to beat a team three times in a year, and in back to back games. Oregon escaped Corvallis with a three-point win on Wednesday.
I like both of these matchups for the Ducks. The 8 day layoff seems to come at a terrible time when the Ducks were rolling, but facing teams that Oregon should beat will help them advance in the tournament. I believe Oregon advances to see Utah in the third round, who I expect will knock off either Stanford or Washington in their game.