College football fans are nearing the halfway point. The Ducks last played on January 9th in the blowout loss in the Peach Bowl to eventual champion Indiana, 114 days ago. As of Sunday it's 128 days until the 2026 season opener against Boise State.
Every year the analysts and pundits try to keep fans entertained with post spring power rankings and preseason polls. It's the only football fans have until Big Ten Media Days in late July, so the most ardent of us devour it.
The preseason hype is a fickle monster, often wildly wrong. No one had Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers winning it all, thinking they'd take a step back with a new quarterback and a few losses on defense. This was the AP preseason Top 25:
Preseason 2025 AP Top 25 Poll rankings
Rank School (1st place votes) Points
1 Texas (25) 1552
2 Penn State (23) 1547
3 Ohio State (11) 1472
4 Clemson (4) 1398
5 Georgia (1) 1331
6 Notre Dame 1325
7 Oregon (1) 1236
8 Alabama 1179
9 LSU 1174
10 Miami (Fla.) 889
11 Arizona State 791
12 Illinois 713
13 South Carolina 667
14 Michigan 662
15 Florida 626
16 SMU 565
17 Kansas State 512
18 Oklahoma 463
19 Texas A&M 434
20 Indiana 423
21 Ole Miss 370
22 Iowa State 309
23 Texas Tech 274
24 Tennessee 192
25 Boise State 191
While the Hoosiers ranked a lowly 20 in the summer poll, Clemson, Texas, Penn State and LSU seemed like surefire playoff teams. The Tigers, Nittany Lions and Bayou Bengals all featured highly touted QBs in Cade Klubnik, Drew Allar and Garrett Nussmeier, three players expected to battle for the Heisman Trophy.
Instead the draft stock for these three plummeted in a frustrating lost year for their programs, each school finishing with a 7-6 record. At preseason No. 1 Texas Arch Manning posted an inconsistent season in his first full year as a starter, losing three games and missing the playoffs. In a November win over Texas A&M he completed just 48 percent of his passes.
Games aren't won on paper, and the preseason hype is rarely more than half right
On paper this season, the Ducks are national championship contenders with team leaders passing up the NFL draft for a playoff run. Dante Moore, Evan Stewart, Iapani Laloulu, Matayo Uiagalelei, Teitum Tuioti, Bear Alexander and A'Mauri Washington, all projected to be high NFL draft picks, are all back.
The Ducks are loaded. They're a team on a mission after ending last season with an embarrassing loss. Yet a year ago at this time Penn State, Clemson, LSU and Texas fans as well as the experts all said the same kind of thing.
In his post spring review of the apparent national championship contenders, Josh Pate said about Oregon, "This team is poised to make a run at a national championship. They may very well have the best quarterback in the country. They may have the best and certainly deepest defensive line in the country. You could make the argument that they could challenge for having the number one wide receiver room in the country."
Those are nice plaudits, but history shows the hype doesn't matter. Execution and preparation win football games. Just ask Curt Cignetti.
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