Ken Pomeroy is a basketball stats whiz from Utah, a former meteorologist and a professor at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City. His meticulous research pretty much created basketball analytics, so much so that he's quoted constantly by sports publications and radio.
Evaluating teams and basketball performances have made him internet famous if not rich. He's developed statistical models that predict how teams will perform and their relative strength. His first national attention came in 2007 while doing freelance work for ESPN, and now he has his own website, kenpom.com. The basic ratings are offered free, but advanced analysis requires a 24.95 subscription.
Every year he ranks the NCAA teams for offensive and defensive efficiency, luck and strength of schedule. All 364 of them.
Mike Kadlick of Sports Illustrated summarized KenPom's track record in predicting winners:
"Since 1999, 18 of the tournament's 25 champions have been a No. 1 seed—one of the top-four teams in the country. On top of this, since 2002, all but two Madness champs have been a top 20 team in both adjusted offensive rating and adjusted defensive rating according to KenPom."
The Oregon men open tournament play Friday with a game against Liberty in Seattle, 7:10 p.m. PDT on TruTV, part of the opening round of the East Regional at Climate Pledge Arena, the quintessential Pomeroy location, as it happens.
The Ducks, 24-9, enter the game ranked by KenPom 40th in offensive efficiency, 30th on defense. That's well outside his parameters for making noise in the tournament. They should handle the Flames, who haven't faced much top tier competition, ranking 77th on offense and 48th on defense. In traditional basketball terms, they're an undersized team that shoots well from three-point range (guards Taelon Peter, Colin Porter and Brent Decker all hit over 42 percent, with Peter pouring in 46 percent of his threes-- the legendary Steph Curry has a career 3-point percentage of 42.4 in the NBA, where the distance is a little deeper.)
The Ducks shoot much better from the free throw line and they have a big size advantage up front with 7-0 Nate Bittle and 6-9 Kwame Evans attacking the glass. Of course, no amount of statistical analysis accounts for the Dana Altman magic. He's been taking teams beyond their profiles for 34 seasons, with a penchant for finding a hot hand and peaking in March.
Just last season the No. 11-seeded Ducks beat No. 6 South Carolina 87-73 behind 40 points by guard Jermaine Couisnard and 23 from center N'Faly Dante. Two days later they lost to three-seed Creighton in double overtime, 86-73, with Couisnard scoring 32 and Dante going off for 28 points and 20 rebounds. Oh, to have him back again!
To make the Sweet 16, though, the Ducks will likely have to get past Arizona, which ranks 12th in offensive efficiency and 33rd on defense. They play 28-6 Akron Friday at 4:35, also in Seattle. The Wildcats are 13.5-point favorites over the Zips, who are named after the rubber rainboots made by the B.F. Goodrich Company in the 1920s. Everybody's got a shoe connection, but Oregon's is the coolest.