With college football going to a straight-seeding model in 2025, what will the playoff bracket look like?
On3's Andy Staples thinks he knows. The podcast host and veteran college football writer released his final 12 Tuesday, the fruit of more than 20 years covering the sport for the Tampa Bay Tribune, Chattanooga Times Free Press and The Athletic before his gig at On3.
Before that he was a 245-pound walk-on offensive lineman at Florida on the national championship team in 1996, so it isn't surprising that his playoff forecast leans heavily into SEC bias. Staples predicts an all-SEC final with Georgia pulling off two upsets to get there.
He also puts his Gators in the field with a first-round game against the Ducks.
Curiously, Staples forecasts Penn State as the Big Ten Champion and the No. 2-seed, but he has Georgia dumping them in the quarterfinal after a home game against Texas Tech.
In Staple's mock-up the Ducks take care of DJ Lagway and the Gators in Autzen Stadium in the first round. (Average low temperature in Eugene for December 20 is 36 degrees, with a 54 percent chance of rain.) But a quarterfinal with Texas looks a lot like last year's Rose Bowl.
Just three Big Ten teams make the field, four from the SEC. Notre Dame benefits most from the straight-seeding format, gaining a top-four ranking by the College Football Playoff Committee, but they're no match for the Bulldogs, leading to an all-SEC final.
Penn State wins the conference championship but defending national champion Ohio State goes furthest in the playoff. Alabama is back and from the looks of this bracket, an 11-win team in the regular season.
Sounds about right in terms of reflecting preseason expectations, but preseason rankings are rarely more than half right:
Preseason AP Top 25 Poll rankings, 2024
Rank School Points
1 Georgia (46) 1,532
2 Ohio State (15) 1,490
3 Oregon (1) 1,403
4 Texas 1,386
5 Alabama 1,260
6 Ole Miss 1,189
7 Notre Dame 1,122
8 Penn State 1,060
9 Michigan 995
10 Florida State 971
11 Missouri 927
12 Utah 887
13 LSU 804
14 Clemson 689
15 Tennessee 629
16 Oklahoma 566
17 Oklahoma State 538
18 Kansas State 526
19 Miami (FL) 492
20 Texas A&M 292
21 Arizona 237
22 Kansas 231
23 Southern Cal 172
24 North Carolina State 171
25 Iowa 140
Bama, Ole Miss, Michigan, Missouri and Florida State didn't even make the playoff last season, and the Seminoles finished last in the ACC at 2-10 overall.
Oklahoma State slumped to a 3-9 year, O-9 in the Big 12. No one saw Boise State, Arizona State or SMU coming. Kansas? Texas A&M? North Carolina State? USC? Football mediocrities.
Chalk rarely holds in the regular season, but an expanded playoff still gets dominated by the stacked rosters and deep pockets. Staples' same-as-it-ever-was final four might not be too far off.
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian told Staples, "I don't think you're ever going to see an undefeated national champion again."