No. 5 Oregon hosts No. 12 James Madison in the College Football Playoff, 4:30 p.m. Saturday at Autzen Stadium, televised on TNT, truTV and HBO Max.
Three days ahead of kickoff the betting lines have shifted. The game opened with Oregon offered as a 21.5-point favorite. Current odds have the 11-1 Ducks as a 21-point favorite. The total has moved the most, dropping four points from 51.5 down to 47.5, the four-point change indicative of a lower-scoring game.
Curiously, the Moneyline has stayed constant, Oregon -2100, the 12-1 Dukes, champions of the Sun Belt Conference +1100. Meanwhile the ESPN Matchup Predictor gives the hosts an 88.2% chance to win.
JMU safety Jacob Thomas spoke for his teammates when he said, "Outside critics can say whatever they want, we made it to this position because we earned it."
They'll rely on a fierce running game that features dual-threat quarterback Alonza Barnett III and tailback Wayne Knight, a 5-7, 190-pound tackling-breaking scooter who pierced Troy for 212 yards and a 73-yard touchdown.
The Ducks will counter with the Caucasian Collision Unit, and with the prospect of getting some key weapons back at wide receiver.
Weather remains a big factor in the line changes. It's expected to be colder in Eugene Saturday night with a chance of flooding. The latest forecast at AccuWeather calls for an evening high of 43 and showers, about .09 of an inch of rain, winds 8-9 mph, conditions that could suppress the offense and make play callers more conservative.
Dukes feature strong running game and stingy defense
The weather could dictate a slower tempo and a physical style. Oregon is No. 5 in the nation running the football at 5.8 yards per carry, James Madison No. 12 at 5.56. The Ducks allow opponents 3.19 yards per carry and 107 yards a game on the ground, while JMU is third in the country against the run, surrendering 2.48 yards a carry and 76 yards a game, dominant in the Group of 5.
In their 31-14 win over Troy in the Sun Belt Championship they stonewalled the Trojans, holding the visitors to -26 yards rushing on 28 carries, sacking Troy quarterback Goose Crowder eight times.
Dukes one of two schools to play and win at all four levels of NCAA football
Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti led JMU from 2019-2023 and took them to the FCS Championship game in 2019, losing to North Dakota State 28-20. The program won a I-AA National Championship in 2004 under Mickey Matthews, the FCS National Championship in 2016 with Mike Houston as head coach.
The Dukes moved to the FBS and the Sun Belt Conference beginning in 2023. When Cignetti moved on to Indiana, they hired Bob Chesney from Holy Cross, recently hired as the new head coach at UCLA. Like Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi for the Ducks, he's vowed to stay with his players through their playoff run.
Along with UCF, the program claims the distinction of being one of two schools to play and win at all four levels of NCAA football, D-III, D-II, D-I FCS, and FBS.