Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon are playoff-likely teams coming out of the Big Ten, each with an over/under of 10.5 wins at FanDuel.
While it's always possible one of the elite three could implode, undone by injuries or bad breaks or complacency, they each have the talent, organization and coaching to meet expectations and achieve the 10-11 win mark.
What's more interesting is the chase to emerge as the Big Ten's fourth contender for the magic 12. There's a solid half-dozen teams that harbor hopes of being this year's Indiana, breaking out of the pack to achieve the dream season no one saw coming.
1. Illinois
FanDuel over/under: 7.5 (regular season wins)
The hype: Last year's 10-win season was the emergence of a new culture. With Altmyer back this team is ready to meet expectations and achieve back-to-back 10-win seasons.
The schedule: Favorable with some pinch points.
Easy Opener: Sat, Aug 30 vs Western Illinois: W
Tricky road game: Sat, Sep 6 @ Duke W
Confidence booster: Sat, Sep 13 vs Western Michigan W
Early swing games: Sat, Sep 20 @ Indiana W Sat, Sep 27 vs USC L
Pencil it in: Sat, Oct 4 @ Purdue W
Toughest test: Sat, Oct 11 vs Ohio State L
Tricky road game: Sat, Oct 25 @ Washington L
Big finish: Sat, Nov 1 vs Rutgers W Sat, Nov 15 vs Maryland W Sat, Nov 22 @ Wisconsin W Sat, Nov 29 vs Northwestern W
Prediction: 9-3
They make the playoffs if: Altmyer progresses as more than a game manager as a senior. He had some clutch moments last season.
The Illini have experience on the offensive line, at linebacker and the secondary. To match last year or make it the field of 12, they need to sweep tough road games at Duke, Indiana and Washington
2. Indiana
FanDuel over/under: 8.5
The hype: Why can't this year's Indiana be last year's Indiana? Fernando Mendoza is plug-and-play, and most of the production is back (61 percent).
The schedule: Much harder than 2024, which is the sticking point.
Slam Dunk wins: Sat, Aug 30 vs Old Dominion Sat, Sep 6 vs Kennesaw State Sat, Sep 13 vs Indiana State
Early swing games: Sat, Sep 20 vs Illinois L Sat, Sep 27 @ Iowa L
Tough road trip: Sat, Oct 11 @ Oregon L
Momentum builders: Sat, Oct 18 vs Michigan State W Sat, Oct 25 vs UCLA W Sat, Nov 1 @ Maryland W
2nd tough road trip: Sat, Nov 8 @ Penn State L
Likely wins: Sat, Nov 15 vs Wisconsin W Sat, Nov 29 @ Purdue W
Prediction: 8-4
They make the playoffs if: Mendoza, who threw for 3,000 yards at Cal, makes a smooth transition. The secondary gels in time for Michigan and Iowa. They achieve an upset at Oregon or Penn State while sweeping September.
3. Nebraska
FanDuel over/under: 7.5
The hype: Matt Rhule in Year 3 plus Dana Holgerson transforming the offense plus Dylan Raiola taking a leap forward equals a new era for Husker football. Rhule's teams at Baylor and Temple won 11 and 10 games in his third season.
The schedule: Immensely favorable. Miss Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and Illinois. Michigan, USC, Iowa at home. Cincinnati and two cupcakes out of conference, all in Lincoln.
Slam Dunk wins: Thu, Aug 28 vs Cincinnati, Sat, Sep 6 vs Akron Sat, Sep 13 vs Houston Christian
Early swing game: Sat, Sep 20 vs Michigan
Likely wins: Sat, Oct 4 vs Michigan State Sat, Oct 11 @ Maryland
Sneaky-tough road game: Sat, Oct 18 @ Minnesota L
November grind: Sat, Nov 1 vs USC L Sat, Nov 8 @ UCLA Sat, Nov 22 W @ Penn State L Fri, Nov 28 vs Iowa W
Prediction: 9-3
They make the playoffs if: The Rhule effect is real, Raiola improves his TD/INT ratio, and Holgerson identifies a big-play threat at receiver. They need Raiola to make a big leap as a sophomore.
4. USC
The hype: The Trojans have found Lincoln Riley's next great quarterback in Jayden Maiava and they've added dudes on the defensive line. There's a new attitude at SC.
The schedule: Deceptively easy at first, but accelerating to an intensity that could get Lincoln Riley a contract extension or an uncomfortable seat.
Sure to feed the hype: Sat, Aug 30 vs Missouri State W Sat, Sep 6 vs Georgia Southern W Sat, Sep 13 @ Purdue W Sat, Sep 20 vs Michigan State W
Threatening to destroy the hype: Sat, Sep 27 @ llinois W Sat, Oct 11 vs Michigan W
Same old Trojans: Sat, Oct 18 @ Notre Dame L Sat, Nov 1 @ Nebraska W
(Anything less than 3-1 in this stretch and the Trojans are overhyped again. Winning at Illinois and Nebraska exceeds anything fans have seen over the last two years.)
Conquest: Sat, Nov 8 vs Northwestern W
Fight on for USC: Sat, Nov 15 vs Iowa W Sat, Nov 22 @ Oregon L
Color Rush: Sat, Nov 29 vs UCLA: W
Prediction: 10-2
They make the playoffs if: Maiava cuts down on his interceptions-- he posted an 11/6 TD-INT ratio last year. The defense legitimately has some teeth, and the new toughness and Trojan pride they're talking about is real. Offensive line?
5. Washington
Fan Duel over/under: 7.5
The hype: Jedd Fisch is a program builder. Look at the turnaround he accomplished at Arizona. The offensive trio of Demond Williams, Jonah Coleman and Denzel Boston will make the Huskies a scary opponent for anyone.
The schedule: All the toughest games are at home, but it'd be foolish to bank on another 6-0 home record.
Hype train: Sat, Aug 30 vs Colorado State W Sat, Sep 6 vs UC Davis W Sat, Sep 20 @ Washington State W
Early pain: Sat, Sep 27 vs Ohio State L
Confidence inflaters: Sat, Oct 4 @ Maryland W Sat, Oct 11 vs Rutgers W
October swing games: Sat, Oct 18 @ Michigan L Sat, Oct 25 vs Illinois W
Extra bye weeks: Sat, Nov 8 @ Wisconsin W Sat, Nov 15 vs Purdue W Sat, Nov 22 @ UCLA W
Not ready for this: Sat Nov 29 Oregon L
Prediction: 9-3
They make the playoffs if: They manage a split with Ohio State/Oregon, Fisch doesn't continue his pattern of losing one or two games he should win (Rutgers, Louisville in 2024) Williams proves to be as accurate and elusive as he showed himself to be in two late starts and somehow the offensive line holds together.
Outside looking in: Iowa is banking a lot on an FCS quarterback coming off shoulder surgery who wasn't available for spring practice. Michigan should improve, but it's unrealistic to expect the playoffs with the losses on defense and a true freshman starting quarterback.