CBS analyst Crawford predicts doom for the Ducks in 'harsh reality' forecast

Criticism is fair as long as it comes from a reasonable premise and it's based on facts. CBS bowl prediction whiz and college football analyst Brad Crawford took a look at every team in the Top 25 Thursday and essentially asked, "What's the fly in the ointment?" "What could go wrong here?"

It's a great reality check because Crawford applies the same standard of cautious pessimism to all 25 teams. About No. 6 Georgia he wonders about Gunner Stockton's decisiveness and confidence.

No. 5 Miami owns a big win over Notre Dame, but Crawford points out, "Mario Cristobal has been in this position before." Big win early, fast start, followed by a loss later on resulting from decisions that make no sense. To date, Cristobal doesn't have a reliable clock in his head or trustworthy handle on how to put a close game away.

When the veteran college football writer got to the Ducks, he was equally frank and unsparing. He wrote, "Adversity may not strike until Week 5."

Crawford points out, fairly, that Oregon's first four opponents don't match up athletically due to the recruiting advantage Dan Lanning and his staff have created. They're rich and relentless, allowing them to stack four classes of quick-twitch, highly-motivated athletes. The Ducks are big, physical, deep and fast in a way only a few teams can match.

The wins over Montana State and Oklahoma State were impressive but not conclusive. Northwestern and Oregon State are likely to be similar, games in which the Ducks are four-touchdown favorites and play like one.

Crawford argues that Lanning and his staff won't truly know what this team is made of until they meet a team in the same tax bracket, September 27 in Happy Valley when they face No. 2 Penn State. He writes, "There's a worry the rug could be pulled out from under the Ducks in Happy Valley, especially if Tulane transfer Makhi Hughes hasn't found his footing in the backfield yet alongside Noah Whittington."

Not so fast, my friend. The CBS Sports pundit is accurate generally but shoddy in the specifics. Penn State will be an imposing test, though a few paragraphs down he takes the Nittany Lions to task for their lackluster execution in two wins over cupcakes. For James Franklin and PSU, the harsh reality is, "
Alert this elite team the season has started."

Though loaded with talent and experience, Penn State's senior-laden crew hasn't looked fully elite in the early going, just tough on defense and workmanlike on offense. Drew Allar is still making the same kinds of errors and seems hesitant to trust his talent.

But back to the Ducks. Crawford's right that the step up in class will be a shock after four weeks of fighting tomato cans. PSU can punch back. They can counter Oregon's speed and test Tosh Lupoi's run defense-- in the Big Ten Championship last year they racked up 538 yards and 38 points.

Lanning and his squad will have to prepare for a more physical, intense game in a storied environment and that could be a shock to the system. But thus far in his career the 39-year-old coach from North Kansas City, Missouri has proved himself to be a master motivator and teacher.

He preps his team very thoroughly for each opponent and the challenges the game will represent. The Ducks go in with a plan. Thus far, all of his six losses have come against ranked teams, and all but one of them have come against playoff teams and championship contenders.

Crawford is dead wrong about one thing. The strength of Oregon's offense doesn't hinge on Makhi Hughes or Hughes becoming the No. 2 running back. Though that could happen, Oregon currently has four ball carriers averaging 11 yards a carry or more. If Hughes wants more carries, he'll have to earn them, and the Duck running game will be formidable with or without him.

Absolutely, the last eight games of the season will be far more testing than the first four. Yet the way the Ducks have executed and gone about their business suggest that future reality may not be so harsh.