The initial rankings of the College Football Playoff Committee came out Tuesday night, and the first seeding and Top 12 carried a strong implied message for the Ducks: Prove it.
At No. 9, 7-1 Oregon is in danger of falling out of the playoff field. A loss could drop them to 11 or 12 or lower. The top five conference champions and the next seven highest-ranked teams make the tournament. Seeds 5-8 earn a home playoff game in the first round.
Committee Mack Rhodes, the Baylor athletic director, explained Oregon's ranking. "Oregon, when you look at them in the top 10, are lowest ranked in terms of record strength. The committee had a lot of conversation - rigorous debate - conversation about Oregon as a team," Rhodes said.
"We're blessed to have three coaches in the room and looking at the tape. When you looked at Oregon, great players at the skill position, felt that they're really, really good up front both sides of the ball. Their one loss is to our No. 2 ranked team, Indiana. When we looked and evaluated Oregon, we really looked in terms of just quality of team and how they looked on film."
Oregon is No. 6 in both the AP and Coaches Poll but No. 9 in the playoff committee rankings, which don't become official and final until the committee announces them on Sunday December 7. The Ducks have remaining games this Saturday at CFP No. 20 Iowa, then a home game versus unranked, 5-3 Minnesota, a game in Autzen with CFP No. 19 USC, followed by the season finale, CFP No. 23 Washington in Seattle.
In four weeks there will be absolute clarity about Dan Lanning's 2025 team, their strength of schedule, their strength of record, and their ability to play tough and consistent football. So far they've been an enigma.
They are a young, talented team that's struggled to score against better defenses, losing at home 30-20 to No. 2 Indiana.
CFP No. 7 BYU, 8-0 plays at No. 8 Texas Tech Saturday. A win in Iowa City elevates the Ducks to No. 8.
The last month of the season is bound to shake up the rankings. It's a season of parity and the margins are smaller than ever. Oregon's task is simple, not to be confused with easy: Prove it, or spend the holidays at the Sun Bowl.