In the NCAA Basketball Tournament, the 5-12 matchup is the seat of peril, the dreaded trap game that seems to claim one March Madness hopeful every year while crowning a potential Cinderella.
It doesn't work that way in NCAA football. Oregon earned the No. 5 seed in the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings, which means they would host the highest-ranked Group of Five Champion in a first-round game at Autzen Stadium on December 19 or 20.
The winner of that game would currently face Texas Tech, although Saturday's Championship Week games could shake up the bracket, potentially in unpredictable ways. On Friday, James Madison plays Troy for the Sun Belt Championship, while North Texas takes on Tulane for the American Conference crown. Those results could change who Oregon gets at home.
Championship Week could alter the bracket in multiple ways
Right now the Ducks are ahead of both Ole Miss and Texas A&M, and those squads have no more games with which to sway the committee. But CFP No. 11 BYU squares off against No. 4 TTU for the Big 12 title, 9 a.m. PT on ABC. Both teams are 11-1.
Although the Red Raiders are 12.5-point favorites, a BYU upset moves them down and BYU up, but how far?
This is THE best case scenario #GoDucks https://t.co/8oULEYnJwL
— Geaux Ducks (@GeauxDuck) December 3, 2025
Similarly, if Indiana and Ohio State stay close at the Big Ten Championship, both should remain in the Top 4. Georgia could move up to two with a win over Alabama, but a Tide upset as 2.5-point dogs elevates them and sends UGA down the pecking order.
For Oregon, the best result is chalk. Moving into the Top Four creates that dreaded long layoff and the prospect of meeting a team with momentum in the quarterfinals. The five-seed is the absolute sweet spot, playing a Group of Five team at home in Autzen, then taking on the four-seed in the quarterfinals.
However it turns out, the objective is to buckle the helmets and go play playoff football. But 5-12, then 4-5 is the most favorable route to the semifinals. With a roster of rehabilitating stars, the Ducks want to avoid a long layoff and a bye. If Dakorien Moore, Evan Stewart and Gary Bryant Jr. are going to play, the Motor City Magician needs a test drive.