Fall Camp begins in less than a month, and Oregon's first game of the college football season kicks off in 57 days. That means eight more Saturdays until Duck football.
Accordingly, that makes this the season of preseason rankings and media days, just a couple of weeks away from Tampa and Indianapolis. On Thursday, ESPN released its preseason edition of the Football Power Index (FPI,) a metric that proposes to rank teams based on how many points they would beat an an average team on a neutral field.
In the preseason, this rating is based on past performance, returning starters, recruiting talent and coaching tenure, which somehow leaves room in the formula for hype and reputation.
A ranking that bolsters reputation while obscuring performance
The formula matters because it shapes perception throughout the year. Coaches refer to it even in December, lobbying for a playoff spot due to their strength of schedule.
In typical ESPN fashion the preseason ranking includes 12 teams from the SEC, a graphic distortion and travesty that waves a magic wand over LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Missouri, Auburn, Florida and South Carolina, which finished last season 7-6, 8-5, 4-8, 8-5, 5-7, 4-8 and 4-8 respectively.
2026 ESPN College Football FPI Top 25🏈⤵️ pic.twitter.com/PBU8JsUhdZ
— Adam Jefferson, Esq. (@AdamJeffSports) July 9, 2026
The preseason ratings inflation sets up the GAUNTLET argument, which allows every three-loss SEC team to bray about their strength of schedule when the College Football Playoff committee approaches the one edition of their poll that actually matters.
In short, FPI is F. Murray Abraham as Antonio Salieri being wheeled through the asylum in the dead of winter, calling out to each of his roommates, "Mediocrity, I absolve you." Tennessee lost to Illinois in the Music City Bowl last year. Missouri fell to Virginia at the Gator Bowl, 13-7. LSU ended their season with a 38-35 loss to Houston in the Texas Bowl.
In all the SEC finished the 2025 postseason with a 4-10 record, a .286 winning percentage. In bold are their games against other conferences:
No. 9 Alabama 34, No. 8 Oklahoma 24 (CFP First Round)
No. 10 Miami (Fla.) 10, No. 7 Texas A&M 3 | (CFP First Round)
No. 6 Ole Miss 41, No. 20 Tulane 10 (CFP First Round)
No. 19 Virginia 13, Missouri 7 (Gator Bowl)
No. 21 Houston 38, LSU 35 (Texas Bowl)
Illinois 30, Tennessee 28 (Music City Bowl)
No. 23 Iowa 34, No. 14 Vanderbilt 27 (ReliaQuest Bowl)
No. 13 Texas 41, No. 18 Michigan 27
No. 1 Indiana 38, No. 9 Alabama 3
No. 6 Ole Miss 39, No. 3 Georgia 34
Wake Forest 43, Mississippi State 29 (Duke's Mayo Bowl)
No. 10 Miami (Fla.) 31, No. 6 Ole Miss 27(CFP semifinal)
From the podium SEC commissioner Greg Sankey brags annually about the depth of the SEC, but when Wake Forest and Iowa dump midrange SEC squads head-to-head, the crown slips a little. It slips even further as the Big Ten has won the last three national titles, while the SEC has been shut out of the last three title games, eliminated in the quarterfinals and semifinals.
Boosting three-quarters of the league (12 of 16 teams) into the preseason FPI Top 25 is outrageous, particularly when "Top 25 wins" are used to bolster arguments later on. Polls shouldn't matter until mid-October. By then there are actual results to evaluate.
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