Nothing means nothing until December 7th. It's all conjecture. It's all up to the moment.
Ranked No. 6 in the Coaches Poll and the AP Poll, the College Football Playoff Committee placed Oregon No. 9, a reflection of the fact their schedule so far lacks quality wins.
Their road to improvement is right in front of them, however. In the coming weeks Oregon has games against Playoff Committee No. 20 Iowa, No. 19 USC, and No. 23 Washington.
Win those three, plus a November 14 Friday night game against Minnesota, and the Ducks will ascend to the 5-8 range and host a first-round playoff game. Suffer an upset at Iowa or Washington, and they're in danger of dropping into the 11/12 range and missing the playoffs, bumped by an automatic qualifier from the Group of Five, Big 12 or ACC.
The Ducks control their destiny, but their margin of error has shrunk after the loss at home to Indiana, plus offensive struggles at Penn State and versus Wisconsin.
If they want the playoffs and a favorable seed, they're going to have to be 4-0 in November. That's only possible if they can go 1-0 this weekend.
Playoff Committee Top 25
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0)
2. Indiana Hoosiers (9-0)
3. Texas A&M Aggies (8-0)
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
5. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)
6. Ole Miss Rebels (8-1)
7. BYU Cougars (8-0)
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (8-1)
9. Oregon Ducks (7-1)
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2)
11. Texas Longhorns (7-2)
12. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2)
13. Utah Utes (7-2)
14. Virginia Cavaliers (8-1)
15. Louisville Cardinals (7-1)
16. Vanderbilt Commodores (7-2)
17. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-1)
18. Miami Hurricanes (6-2)
19. USC Trojans (6-2)
20. Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2)
21. Michigan Wolverines (7-2)
22. Missouri Tigers (6-2)
23. Washington Huskies (6-2)
24. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-2)
25. Tennessee Volunteers (6-3)
If first round were held today:
No. 9 Oregon Ducks at No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders
Winner plays: No. 1 Ohio State
No. 12 Memphis Tigers at No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
Winner plays: No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers at No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels
Winner plays: No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 7 BYU Cougars
Winner plays: No. 2 Indiana
Yet the first round isn't today. There are four weeks to play. While these rankings make headlines and set off a flurry of what-ifs, they're certain to change.
The Ducks have to prove on the field. The discussion is just an ad for Dr. Pepper and Home Depot.
Seven B1G teams are ranked in the CFP rankings.
β emilyetaylor (@emilyetaylor23) November 5, 2025
Oregon at 9 tells me Oregon must run the table to make the college football playoffs. A 2-loss Oregon team will not make the playoffs.
β Paul (@TheCorpatty) November 5, 2025
My quick thought on Oregon being 9th is they think Oregon is going to lose one of their last 4 games so they just have them ready to be out of the postseason with a loss.
β Geoff Schwartz (@geoffschwartz) November 5, 2025
Quick thoughts on Ducks at #9.
β Travis Rooke-Ley (@travisrookeley) November 5, 2025
Itβs fine. Thankfully 3 remaining ranked teams because 10-2 will be dicey. Probably can sneak in at 10 or 11 but will have to sweat it out.
Win all 4 and you host in Autzen as 5-7 seed and could have a nice path.
Beat Iowa π¦
CFP chair Mack Rhoads says Oregon's metrics played a big part. Lowest strength of record of any of its Top 10 teams.
β Stewart Mandel (@slmandel) November 5, 2025
