It's the semifinals of the College Football Playoff. It shouldn't be a surprise that all four teams are talented, well-coached and tough to beat.
Indiana certainly is. They are undefeated Big Ten Champions, 14-0, seeded No. 1 in the playoffs and fresh off a 38-3 pasting of Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
The Hoosiers are disciplined, masters of execution and preparation. Their savvy veteran coaching staff schemes them brilliantly. They are a mature team that makes few mistakes.
Oregon has more talent. The Ducks entered the playoffs with 58 four- and five-star players. Indiana has seven. But the Hoosiers dumped Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and they beat the Ducks 30-20 in Autzen Stadium back in October: They are no strangers to overwhelming highly touted talent with discipline and consistency.
Cignetti's veteran squad is capable of burying an opponent in quicksand. Their pass defense has allowed just seven touchdowns this season while intercepting 17 passes. Their run defense held 12 different opponents under a hundred yards. In Week 4 they announced that last year's playoff season was not a fluke, crushing Illinois 63-10.
They went on to drill UCLA 56-6, Maryland 55-10, Purdue 56-3. They're capable of turning an opponent's mistakes into an avalanche. Oregon has to be composed and treat every play as just one play.
At the Peach Bowl press conference today Dan Lanning said, "The strength in football is the team. It's not one individual. I truly believe that our coaches and our staff and our players who prepared really hard all year to be ready for their opportunities and sometimes people's roles change throughout the year. That's where you have to be selfless."
To write an underdog story and get over the hump, the Ducks must play with exceptional focus
Oregon needs to make this a game of talent and matchups. Kenyon Sadiq, Noah Whittington, Dillon Thieneman and Matayo Uiagalelei have to win their individual battles and be difference-makers. Amari Washington and Bear Alexander must push Fernando Mendoza off his spot and out of his rhythm. The Ducks must wrap him up in the open field. He killed them with timely scrambles and throwaways last time.
A big worry is Indiana's physical receiver corps. Duck fans may remember Elijah Surratt, who burned UO for 8 catches for 121 yards, including a touchdown on a timely, subtle pushoff in the fourth quarter, but 6-0, 204 Omar Cooper matches him on the other side, 61 catches for 849 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Since the 10-point win in Autzen Charlie Becker has emerged as a dangerous third weapon in the passing game. He's 6-4, 209 with good speed, and in the second half of the season he's put up 100-yard games against Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State.
With the Ducks a bit short on cover guys after six defensive backs have entered the portal, Becker could gash them matched up against Oregon's third-best cover guy. As if Indiana didn't already have 50 ways to create heartbreak.
Against all that, the Ducks have to be poised and smart and trust their talent. Dante Moore has to play his best game against pressure and simulated pressure. Defensively, the Ducks created 16 pressures during their loss in October but they only sacked Mendoza once. They've got to create some disruption against a poised, discipline team that rarely feels it.