Over 1,700 players are in the basketball transfer portal and the NIL deals are reaching $4 million a year. In a sport where a team needs 6-8 good players to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament, the rich are getting richer with a cash-driven monopoly on the premium talent.
This year at the Final Four, four No. 1 seeds made it all the way to the Alamodome in San Antonio: No. 1 Duke, No. 1 Auburn, No. 1 Florida, No. 1 Houston. The tournament bracket is right out of "Talladega Nights" and the legend of Ricky Bobby: "If you're not first, you're last."
"On the men's side, for example, more than half the players in this year's 68-team tournament field had played for a previous D1 team before this season. "Jesse Dougherty, The Washington Post
Dougherty discussed this phenomenon Friday in an interview with William Brangham of PBS.
Though it's always been true, talent rises to the top. The age of Cinderella or overachieving with a mediocre roster, of overcoming deficiencies in shooting with hustle and defense and team play appear over.
At Oregon, Dana Altman's crafted a legend building plucky teams that peak in March and exceed expectations, finding players in obscure places, patching together a winner out of grit and good coaching. He's won 780 career games at the Division I level, a phenomenal record of consistency and dogged devotion to fundamentals.
It's impressive. But in the new world order of college basketball, the game requires a coach to be a full-time fundraiser and a relentless scout. He has to put five greyhounds on the floor, 40 percent shooters from three, big men who can move and dribble.
Duck fans admire Dana Altman. He's been classy and consistent, and he's Division I's winningest coach in March. But in this superheated market, only the deep-pocketed survive. Eight of the top 10 transfer recruits have already chosen new schools, 11 of the top 15. Of the top five, four went to other Big Ten schools, Michigan (No. 1 Yaxel Lendeborg,) Purdue (No. 2 Oscar Cluff,) Iowa (No. 3 Bennett Sirtz,) and UCLA (No. 5 Donovan Dent.)
St. John's guard RJ Luis is uncommitted, a 6-7 junior from Miami who scored 18.2 points a game for the Red Storm this season, 33.6 percent from three. Coached by Rick Pitino, the Johnnies lost to No. 10-seed Arkansas in the second round, who fell to three-seed Texas Tech.
A big guard who can rebound, defend and attack the rim opposite Sheltstad would be a powerful backcourt for the Ducks, and Altman might succeed in improving his decision-making, which is occasionally erratic. Pitino benched him for the last five minutes of the loss to the Razorbacks.
Luis bypassed the NBA and he's already focused on five schools. He'd be expensive.
I’m told by @CBSBrenton that Big East POTY RJ Luis is expected to forgo the NBA Draft and focus on finding his next school.
— Brody Sheetz (@brodysheetzESPN) April 2, 2025
Schools to look out for:
Michigan State
Kansas
Kentucky
Creighton
Louisville
It’s known that Luis is intrigued by the idea of playing in the Big Ten. pic.twitter.com/qTle9yVX7y
Overachieving doesn't work in an atmosphere where top seeds are stockpiling players at an unprecedented rate. It's time to adjust the strategy and mix it up. With Bittle, Shelstad and Evans, the Ducks would have a nucleus, but all three of those are in limbo as of Sunday.