All the Ducks have to do is storm a castle guarded by 106,000 screaming, singing, chanting souls, and steal away a crystal dream. The line, the pundits and the ancient myth say the task is impossible.
Oregon at Penn State, 4:30 p.m. PT on NBC, announcers Noah Engle, Todd Blackledge and Kathryn Tappen. Radio on the Oregon Sports Network.
Current odds: The line has been stable, not much movement since last Saturday's games with the Nittany Lions coming off a bye. Penn State is favored by 3.5 on most sites, with the money line at Penn State at -175 (risk $175 to win $100) and Oregon at +150 (risk $100 to win $150.)
Daunting travel challenge: Dan Lanning noted this week that Oregon travels over 15,000 miles this season (it's actually 16,770 miles, according to Brett McMurphy of On3 Sports, third-most in college football behind Hawaii and Stanford) and no less than seven Oregon opponents this season will be coming off extra rest.
With a bye in between, the Ducks travel to No. 3 Penn State and host No. 11 Indiana, both opponents coming off a bye week.
Final prediction: Leading up to a game, the proper way is to play it straight down the middle, to lay out the challenges and difficulties of the matchup and credit the opponent for their strengths. As gametime approaches, it's time to gird up and see a path to victory.
Conventional wisdom about this game has all been about the power of White Out environment and the passionate crowd, a setting that unnerves opponents and leads to assignment errors, false starts, forced timeouts and a loss of poise.
Penn State's defense has looked tough in the early going and the prevailing feeling is that defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton and tackle Zane Durant will lead an assault on the Oregon offense and disrupt too much of what the Ducks want to do, stoning the run and pressuring the pass.
On offense, PSU quarterback Drew Allar has not looked sharp in the early season or in big games over his career. In comfortable wins over Florida International and Villanova, he completed 58 and 55 percent of his passes.
The narrative is that Allar and the Nittany Lions will be inspired by the White Out environment and play better and cleaner than they have all season, that head coach James Franklin and his team, angered and embarrassed over a 4-20 record against Top Ten teams, will come to life at home in a quiet, focused desperation.
College football experts Josh Pate and Joel Klatt both see it that way, predicting a Penn State victory at home in Beaver Stadium.
Nuts. There is no switch to flip. Teams tend to play the way they have played. Oregon and Penn State have played similar, weak competition over the season's opening month, and the Ducks have been efficient and explosive. Allar and Penn State have been creaky, spotty and inefficient. And they've been playing at home the whole time.
Oregon has shown themselves to be fast and physical, and they've already demonstrated the urgency PSU is supposed to rise to in the fourth game of the year. They've brought a consistent, focused anger to this season, a quiet one, a determination to erase a season last year that ended in embarrassment at the Rose Bowl.
This time around, it'll be the Ducks that show who they are. Dante Moore's going to lead a passing attack and an offense marked by some of the sharpest throws and explosive route-running in college football. They're going to hit some of their shots and play with poise, because they've demonstrated that all season, every game. In four weeks Moore has completed 75 percent of his passes for 962 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception.
With Carson Beck on a bye this week, this is a chance for Dante Moore to become the Heisman favorite
— John “Supi” Supowitz (@ImThatSupi) September 24, 2025
I think I like his chances to get it done in Happy Valley pic.twitter.com/ZjfCVyImT3
The narrative that Moore is going to fold under pressure while Allar rises to an entirely new level is nonsense. These two quarterbacks have shown who they are, and the extra pressure to suddenly prove he can play well in a big game will only shine a harsher light on the senior from Medina, Ohio, causing him to feel the weight of the moment more intensely.
Allar is the one who will feel the weight of expectations, voiced by 106,000 throats. Moore is free to play football.
It's not what you're walking into, it's what you're walking in with. pic.twitter.com/pVfwziC0t1
— ☘️LegalizeQuack☘️ (@Legalize_Quack) September 27, 2025
Moore throws for 300 yards and four touchdowns. The Ducks win 35-27. The idea that one quarterback will play better than he ever has while the more consistent quarterback will collapse in a big road game is absurd.