FanDuel has set a betting line for 7-1 Oregon at 6-2 Iowa after the bye, Saturday November 8, game time to be determined.
The Ducks are 6.5-point favorites on the road in Kinnick Stadium with the over/under at 42.5. The Moneyline is Oregon -260, Iowa +210. ESPN's FPI gives the visitors a 69 percent chance to win.
The Hawkeyes have been the more consistent of the two teams over the last three games. They gave Indiana at tough game in Iowa City on September 27, losing 20-15 on a 49-yard touchdown pass with 33 seconds to play, Fernando Mendoza to Elijah Surratt.
Since that loss they've won three in a row, at Wisconsin 37-0, a squeaker over Penn State 25-24 and a rout at home versus the Golden Gophers.
The under may be the soundest bet. Defensive coordinator Phil Parker's unit ranks No. 6 in the nation in scoring defense at 13.1 points per game; the Ducks rank No. 7 at 13.5. The Hawkeyes limit opponents to 2.64 yards per carry on the ground, sixth-best in the nation. Oregon sits 23rd at 3.34.
The Ducks have been more explosive, but Iowa has proven to be tenacious in limiting explosive plays. Oregon has racked up 61 plays from scrimmage of 20 yards or more, tops in the country. Iowa's only given up 18 "chunk" plays, tied for No. 6 nationally. Tosh Lupoi's unit has limited opponents to 13 chunk plays, in a three-way tie for first in that category.
Kirk Ferentz and his staff have earned legendary status over his 26 years as IU head coach for toughness and thoroughness of preparation on both defense and special teams. Last Saturday they demolished Minnesota 41-3, scoring on a 34-yard interception return by sophomore defensive back Zach Lutmer and a 50-yard punt return by senior wide receiver Kaden Wetjen.
The Hawkeyes are masters of disciplined team play and hidden yards, and Kinnick Stadium is one of the most raucous and intimidating environments in the Big Ten.
Another factor is Dan Lanning's record after a bye, which stands at 2-2, characterized by sluggish starts:
2022: Won 30-20 against Indiana at home.
2023: Lost 33-36 at Washington.
2024: Won 49-21 against Washington.
2025: Lost 20-30 to Indiana.
The Hawkeyes outpace the Ducks in sacks, 17-13 and tackles for loss, 45-36. Both offenses have allowed 11 sacks. Oregon is tops in the Big Ten running the football at 237 yards per game, 6.26 per carry, while is No. 1 in the Big Ten at stopping the run, allowing a scant 2.64 yards per carry and 84 yards a game.