It's the time of the year where every backwards hat in a tee shirt sets up his Best Buy microphone to put out a prediction for his favorite conference, with varying degrees of accuracy and care.
One that came out this week had Minnesota safety Koi Perich as "Koi Parrish" and had him lining up in the defensive backfield for the Ducks. It's a buyer-beware enterprise.
Sans Perich, the floor for Oregon is 8-4 and the ceiling is 12-0. It's certain the ceiling is possible because they just achieved it a year ago-- the floor is much harder to contemplate. Remember 2007? One of the most talented and dynamic teams in Oregon history suffered rotten injury luck, losing stars Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart after starting the year 8-1 and reaching No. 2 in the country.
That year they lost three games in agonizing fashion before rallying to win the Sun Bowl 56-21 over South Florida behind fifth-team quarterback Justin Roper. Stewart came back from a nagging turf toe injury to rush for 253 yards and a 71-yard touchdown.
The floor proved to be 8-4, but when Dixon and the Blur Offense destroyed Michigan in the Big House in September, fans would have set the ceiling at a crystal football and a shower of confetti. Things have been so good lately, you forget how bad they can be.
This season, Oregon achieves its ceiling only if:
1. The offensive line gels early and drives a strong running game
With a new starter at quarterback and a potential all-conference receiver already down with an injury, Oregon's offense needs a reliable identity. That amplifies the need to rely on the running game.
The Ducks feature a triple threat in the running back rotation in Makhi Hughes, Noah Whittington and Dink Riggs, but fans saw last year how woefully the team struggled early in the year, averaging less than three yards a carry running the football against Idaho and Boise State.
The o-line found its rhythm and cohesion after Iapani Laloulu moved to center, gashing Oregon State for 240 yards on the ground in Game 3.
The early inconsistency can't happen this season and it likely won't. Laloulu's now a fixture snapping the ball and making the line calls, and Isaiah World, Immanuel Pregnon, Alex Harkey and Dave Iuili/Matthew Bedford are all proven D-1 players though they haven't played together as a unit.
Having been through that adjustment period with last year's group, A'lique Terry should have a firmer grasp on how to get these guys working with a "five as one" mentality. Having a veteran anchor in the middle should make it easier.
Pass blocking is a strength for this group, World, Pregnon and Laloulu in particular. Dante Moore should have time to throw and take his deep shots.
2. Dante Moore is competent and consistent as the new starter in Will Stein's Celebrity Quarterback Rehab
Stein (and his predecessor Kenny Dillingham) have already taken a pair of maligned, doubted veteran quarterbacks and lifted them to new levels of accuracy and efficiency. It's a quarterback-friendly offense with an emphasis on finding the easy yards and getting the ball to playmakers, and that's perfect for building confidence and rhythm.
As a true freshman starter at UCLA Moore struggled, completing just 53.5 percent of his passes, 11 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. That's not a true measure of his ability or upside. For the Ducks to reach toward their ceiling, Moore needs to find his.
3. The defense levels up
National perception of the Oregon program took a nose dive after they stumbled in the Rose Bowl last year after a 24-day layoff. Tosh Lupoi's group got shredded in both the Big Ten Championship and the playoff, giving up 78 points and 1,023 yards over the two games.
Lupoi can't let that happen in 2025. Oregon will need to lean on its defense a little more this season, particularly early in the year. They feature a deep defensive line and two experienced linebackers in Bryce Boettcher and Devon Jackson, and transfer safety Dillon Thieneman sets a standard of preparation and aggressiveness in the secondary.
The secondary should be improved the most. Thieneman, Theran Johnson and Jadon Canady were all-conference players at their last stops, and the rest of the unit is longer, faster and more athletic. The veterans should keep the talented youngsters on the right page, allowing them to match up and make plays on the ball.
4. Special teams prove special
A nagging sore point in seasons past, Oregon's special teams appear to be upgraded going into 2025. Atticus Sappington returns, and he nailed 14-16 field goals last season.
Redshirt freshman Gage Hurych extends the range: He split the uprights with 47- and 54-yard field goals in the spring game. Transfer punter James Ferguson-Reynolds, a rugby-style kicker from Geelong, Victoria, Australia led the entire NCAA in punting in 2023 with a 49.7-yard average.
In the return game the Ducks have a bevy of dynamic options. Noah Whittington returned a kick for 100 yards against the Broncos, Gary Bryant Jr. provides a reliable set of hands fielding punts, and there's always the option of setting up for a big play with dynamic freshman Dakorien Moore
5-STAR OREGON SIGNEE DAKORIEN MOORE FIRST TOUCH OF THE UNDER ARMOUR ALL-AMERICA GAME TO THE CRIB 🔥 @thereal_kori2x
— Billy Tucker (@TheUCReport) January 2, 2025
This dude is different #UANext pic.twitter.com/SA06HR2I9O