Two weeks ago Bruce Feldman of The Athletic and Fox Big Noon Kickoff put two Ducks on the Freaks List, and today he's predicting they'll lose to Penn State, Iowa and Washington and miss the playoffs.
Only two Big Ten teams make his bracket, Penn State as the three-seed and Ohio State as the five-seed. It's beyond illogical.
Even if Oregon misses, the likelihood of Indiana, Illinois, Nebraska and Michigan all missing as well is low. Someone has to benefit from the supposed mediocrity of the defending Big Ten Champions. Feldman terms the Ducks as "this year's Florida State," the team most likely to drop out of the Top Ten.
With the season about to kick off this weekend, I put together my 12-team bracket for exactly how I think the 2025 college football season and the Playoff will play out. pic.twitter.com/BuheRgMXYb
— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) August 20, 2025
Certainly Oregon could fall to 9-3. If the Dante Moore experiment doesn't prove out, or the loss of two wide receivers (Stewart injury, Dickey suspension) turns out to be too much to overcome, the floor for the program is probably 8-4 or 7-5.
But that's the disaster/doomsday scenario. ESPN's Bill Connelly also predicts regression from the Ducks. His preseason FPI shows a decline of 3.7 points, noting that the team is 115th in returning production.
The problem with these negative forecasts is they don't account for three crucial things, 1) the strength of the culture, 2) stacking three top recruiting classes and 3) one of the best portal classes in the country.
NEW: On3 College Football Preseason All-Transfer Portal Team🔥
— On3 (@On3sports) August 20, 2025
Do you agree? 🤔https://t.co/HiXxLZp3wU pic.twitter.com/8JzE7s6o48
Oregon's added six starters In the portal, Isaiah World and Dillon Thieneman who made the On3 All-Transfer team, plus running back Makhi Hughes, offensive linemen Emmanuel Pregnon and Alex Harkey, Bear Alexander at defensive tackle. Malik Benson, Jamari Johson, Jadon Canady and Theran Johnson will all be key contributors. James Ferguson-Reynolds was the top punter in the NCAA in 2023, a monster 49.7-yard average.
Returning production is a misleading indicator in the new age of college football, no longer reliable. On a roster with a 78% blue-chip ratio and 10 solid additions from the portal, it scarcely applies at all. The Ducks are reloading. It's absurd to think a 6-7 Washington team is four touchdowns better in 2025.
The trouble with prediction season is that everyone becomes obsessed with the search for Cinderella and the urge to be trendy and profound. It's amazing that a team that went 13-0 a year ago is suddenly the hot pick to collapse. There's a much sounder foundation in Eugene than there was a year ago at Florida State.