Playoff Expansion
Although the idea of fourteen teams was flirted with for a while, it appears that an expansion of the college football playoff to sixteen is inevitable.
In my opinion, an expanded playoff is absolutely not necessary. No amount of good group of five teams, or Big Twelve champions nearly defeating SEC powers should be able to convince you that sixteen teams can reasonably win a national championship.
The further expansion of the playoff does not help you, the fan. Really, it only helps the people who financially benefit from more playoff games, and in some cases, the teams who are able to sneak in.
Moving forward, control of the playoff rests solely in the hands of the Big Ten and SEC, acting as the literal big men on campus, able to control the structure and seeding, even for other conferences. Most likely, they will ensure that each conference has four participants in the sixteen team playoff.
They will do so by ensuring automatic qualifiers for conferences. While an expanded playoff can do nothing but water down the greatest regular season of any sport, it will turn the attention to the regular season conference races. The upside: Conference races will be tightly contended and matter. The downside: We will see three loss or more teams sneak into the playoff, reducing the weight of the regular season.
With this, we will most likely have inter-conference "playoff" of sort, or matchups between conference opponents on the traditional conference championship weekend, in order to determine the automatic qualifiers for the Big Ten and SEC.
For example, this is what the Big Ten inter-conference matchup would have looked like a season ago:
Oregon (1) vs Penn State (2): Big Ten Championship Game
Indiana (3) vs Iowa (6)
Ohio State (4) vs Illinois (5)
How does this impact Oregon?
Myself and seemingly all Oregon fans believe that even in a playoff consisting of twelve teams, Oregon should be in it every single season. Dan Lanning has done a great job of acquiring talent both through the high school ranks and the transfer portal. Him and his staff have developed elite talents at a higher rate than any other coach in Oregon history.
Because of this, the expectation to be a playoff team and a serious contender every season is more than reasonable. So, with the expectation that Oregon should be in the playoff, or at least contending to be in it, let's see how it impacts Oregon.
The race to be one of the top two seeds is just as important -- though the actual conference championship game (in this hypothetical scenario) is essentially meaningless. However, being one of those top two seeds means that you have secured your spot in the playoff.
Being outside of those top two seeds means that you will have to play your way into the post-season. As discussed above, being the three or four seed would end up with a manageable game (Ohio State vs Illinois, Indiana vs Iowa if this had happened in 2024). Oregon comfortably handled Illinois in a raucous Autzen Stadium, and while they did not match up, clearly a better team than Iowa.
Even if those 3 vs 6 seed and 4 vs 5 seed matchups should be manageable should Oregon be in any of those spots, you don't want to leave it to chance.
Expect more major opponents in the non-conference slate. Oregon is continuing on a run of Big Twelve games early in the season this year, as Oklahoma State comes to Eugene. Previously, they played Texas Tech on the road in 2023, and will play Oklahoma State in 2026 on the road, followed by a home-and-home with Baylor in 2027/28.
While these should all be good games, and great early season tune ups for the Ducks, I believe that under the expected playoff expansion, we could see more ACC or SEC schools on the schedule. The conference race is the most important aspect of entering into the playoff, as there are only three at-large bids (one of which will be essentially reserved for Notre Dame). However, winning big in one of these games is a solid résumé builder.
An early season non-con game against Auburn, LSU, or Tennessee, which we have all seen in the past, would serve Oregon well. They would be able to get an early season test that would not only help prepare them for the upcoming Big Ten grind, but also would have virtually no impact on their playoff standing.
Scheduling against major SEC or ACC schools would allow the Ducks to showcase their brand on a national stage, be in front of recruits close to recruiting hot beds, prepare them for the season, generate revenue, without any impact on their playoff standing.
While considering all of the above, you could detract and say that these games do not have any standing on the rest of the season if the focus is on the conference race -- and you would also be right. Both can be (and are) true.
Expect better seeding. This might be wishful thinking... The Ducks were dealt a bad hand in the playoff in 2024/25, and were essentially punished for going undefeated and winning the Big Ten. Meanwhile, the team they beat in the conference championship game, Penn State, got to play SMU and Boise State.
With an expanded playoff, hopefully the committe will be able to determine a seeding scenarion which makes sense given the current playoff structure. Meaning, Oregon SHOULD be rewarded for having a great team, as they did in 2024, and not punished for being just that.
At the end of the day, the expansion of the playoff does not impact the way in which the Ducks will recruit, play games, or run their program. However, the structure around the post-season will be changing and the importance of the conference race will level up to an even higher degree.