At FanDuel and other wagering sites, bettors' confidence in the Ducks soars as the point spread has reached Oregon -10.5, climbing from 7.5 at the open.
The Moneyline stands at Oregon -400, USC +300, and the over/under has risen to 59.5.
People can and do lose money betting football, but the rising spread suggests public confidence in a home win four days ahead of No. 16 USC at No. 6 Oregon, 12:30 p.m. PT from Autzen Stadium, TV on CBS.
The forecast calls for good football weather, a high of 52, low clouds and a 13 percent chance of rain with a few sun breaks and winds at four mph.
It's weather that leans in to passing and a wide-open offensive game, which gives the upset-minded Trojans a "fight-on" chance. That makes the matchup of USC's offensive line versus the Oregon defensive front critical.
If the pass rush gets home, the Trojans are cooked
So far teams have avoided challenging the Oregon front of Matayo Uiagalelei, A'Mauri Washington, Bear Alexander and Teitum Tuioti, relying on quick throws. Geoff Schwartz of "The Ducks Rising Film Room" points out that SC quarterback Jayden Maiava typically takes more time to throw than the Oregon pass rush allows.
As you prepare for Oregon-USC there's something I'd like to point out. I can already hear it.
— Geoff Schwartz (@geoffschwartz) November 18, 2025
"Oregon can't rush the passer" ... That's not accurate.
Quarterbacks are throwing the ball so fast against us.
The last three games against teams who attempted to pass against the… pic.twitter.com/PXoKcd7RxJ
Schwartz notes that Maiava averages 2.94 seconds to throw with his last three games all over three. That's too many Mississippis for Matayo and Company, who can get home in 2.25.
USC and Oregon are tied in the Big Ten in protecting the passer, each allowing just 12 sacks so far this season. It's a clash of strengths as the Trojans have the conference's best passing offense by volume, and the Ducks have the No. 1 pass defense in the nation.
The USC run defense ranks 10th in the Big Ten, allowing 4.42 yards per carry and 146 yards a game. Notre Dame gashed them for 306 yards and three touchdowns, Nebraska for 188, Iowa for 183. They can't score if they don't get the ball.
Ducks, Dan Lanning embrace the challenge
"The challenge is always fun. This is certainly a team that is a challenge," Dan Lanning said Monday.
"They play really good football. These moments are fun. When college gameday is coming to come see you twice, there's a reason. It speaks volumes about our fanbase, it speaks volumes about our program and their program as well. When you get opportunities like that, that's something you want to take advantage of."
Against Minnesota quarterback Dante Moore and the Oregon offense showed signs of gelling the way a team needs to in order to make a run in the playoffs. There's been a lot of noise about whether they are overrated, ranked in the Top Ten despite not having a win over a currently ranked team. This game could squelch that talking point