Something weird is happening with the betting numbers ahead of Oregon's home game against 5-0, No. 7 Indiana, Saturday in Autzen Stadium at 12:30 p.m. PT, broadcast on CBS.
The line opened at Oregon -10.5. Yesterday it dropped to -9.5, and some 18 hours later it's at Oregon -8.5. The IU moneyline has dropped from +305 to +270.
It could just be that Penn State's gigantic faceplant at the Rose Bowl has bettors reevaluating the Ducks' win over the Nittany Lions. James Franklin's squad went to UCLA as a 24.5-point favorite over the Bruins but lost 42-37 with the home squad scoring the first five times they had the ball.
Current odds at FanDuel still have the Ducks among the favorites to make the playoffs and win the national title at +550, behind only the Ohio State Buckeyes, 5-0 and ranked No. 1 in the country.
By itself, the line movement is not cause for alarm. The huge gambling palaces in the Nevada desert are testimony to the fact that the public gets it wrong all the time. The Ducks were a 3.5-point underdog in Happy Valley, for example.
No new injury reports have surfaced from Ducks practice, but the team's health and focus remain something to watch out of the bye week. The simplest explanation is that Indiana is a tough opponent, the last currently-ranked opponent that Oregon is scheduled to face this year.
Owing partly to a weak nonconference schedule, the Hoosiers are the only team ranked in the Top 5 in both scoring offense and scoring defense, though Oregon ranks sixth in both. In their two Big Ten games IU clubbed Illinois 63-10, then won at Iowa 20-15.
Dan Lanning told the press last week, "They're obviously very well-coached. They've got a team that plays really hard.”
Not to panic, but the line is down to Oregon -7.5 at the ESPN Bet Sportsbook.