Numbers point a clear route to an Oregon victory

Erik Skopil of 247Sports notes that while Fernando Mendoza completes 78 percent of his passes with a clean pocket, that falls to 48 percent under pressure.

It's tough to get pressure on the Indiana quarterback, because in their RPO offense, he gets rid of the ball quickly, releasing it in an average of 2.6 seconds, the fastest in the Big Ten.

To slow the rhythm of one of college football's most productive offense. Oregon has to do three things: stop the run, shut down the slants and hitches, and get some pressure on Mendoza.

The Ducks need to land some shots defensively. They've got to rattle a QB who's been comfortable and picked apart Illinois, Kennesaw State, Old Dominion and Indiana State.

Against Iowa, the Hawkeyes had a better defensive plan and clamped down on the Hoosiers' running game, limiting them to 104 yards on the ground, 2.7 a carry.

Oregon has more and better athletes than Indiana. They've closed the gap some and they will play with toughness and discipline but the Ducks have the strength, size and speed to win some key matchups in the game.

In particular Tosh Lupoi needs edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei against Hoosier right tackle Kahlil Benson. Uiagalelei needs to play with great effort and beat Benson off the ball, employ all of his toolkit to get in the backfield and disrupt what Mendoza wants to do.

If Oregon is able to bat down some passes and rush some throws, they're well on the way to a win. Holding IU to less than 24 should be the goal.

Prediction: Oregon 31, Indiana 20.