Recruiting is blowing up this year. The stakes are higher than ever and schools are shelling out record deals.
On June 5 USC landed five-star tight Mark Bowman, a 6-5, 225 blocker and pass catcher from Mater Dei High School in Santa Ana, California, the No. 1 tight end and No. 17 recruit in the 2026 class.
An impressive get for the Trojans, except they promised him an NIL package worth $10 million to get him. As college football analyst George Wrighster said on X, "The math ain't mathing."
Think about it. The House Settlement limits athletic programs to $20.5 million in revenue sharing, spread out over all sports with 75 percent going to football, about $15 million for the entire roster.
Been saying this for months. Some of the parents/kids gonna learn the hard way.
— George Wrighster III (@georgewrighster) July 2, 2025
The math ain’t mathing!
Also, I expect schools will be getting hit with lawsuits over contract breaches. https://t.co/PSZyFuvC0N
John Talty of CBS wrote, "Many of the schools will follow a familiar formula: approximately 75% to football, 15% to men's basketball, 5% to women's basketball and 5% to the other sports. There is no requisite to spend in that fashion, however, and different schools may prioritize some sports over others."
Of course revenue-sharing is one of the two slices of the pie programs offer their players. The other is NIL deals, which now have to reviewed by the NIL Go clearinghouse if they exceed $600, run by management firm Deloitte.
Justin Williams of The Athletic spoke to a Power 4 conference player personnel director. “The top (football) teams are going to cost $40-50 million a year. That’s where this is going. Anyone who thinks different is nuts,” he said.
The clearing house's mission is to see that the third-party deals don't exceed fair market value, but their rulings will be tested in court, where the NCAA is likely to continue to lose.
But it's still hard to see how all the front-loaded deals and big promises to recruits won't blow the budget. "Fake cash" is likely to send some high-profile players back into the portal.
The search for a workable process with enforceable rules continues. In the meantime, chaos reigns.
Schools are looking for new revenue sources, like jersey patches, naming rights and sponsorships.