One key stat will determine Oregon's chances against Texas Tech

While it's true for most teams, it's startling how much difference this makes for the Ducks.

In the last two seasons Oregon is 25-0 when rushing for more than 100 yards, 0-2 when held to less than 100. October 11 they lost 30-20 to Indiana as the Hoosiers stymied their ground game, 30 carries for 81 yards, a figure that reflects six sacks and eight tackles for loss.

A year ago at the Rose Bowl they suffered their only other loss over the last two campaigns, when the Buckeye defense led by JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer throttled the Oregon rushing attack, holding them to 28 attempts for -26 yards, sacking Dillon Gabriel eight times with 13 tackles for loss.

The rest of the time the Ducks have run the football successfully. Ten times in 2025 they rushed for 176 or more. When they stay ahead of the chains, it's one of the most potent offenses in college football.

Against Indiana they may have abandoned the run too soon. Jordon Davison found some success with power runs inside, eight carries for 59 yards, but Will Stein went away from it in the second half.

Texas Tech enters the Orange Bowl with the best run defense in the country

January 1 at Hard Rock Stadium they'll face Texas Tech's No. 1 defense, which has allowed opponents just 2.3 yards a carry over a relatively easy schedule. Only three teams all year crossed the 100-yard threshold against the Red Raiders:

Texas Tech's ground dominance

The Red Raiders and their quick, aggressive front seven dominated the line of scrimmage, holding 10 different opponents under the 100 mark. In a 12-1 campaign they earned every one of those 12 victories by a margin of three scores or more.

"These guys play a really high level of football, right? And they’ve, they’ve not just beat opponents, they’ve dominated opponents," Dan Lanning said.

Though it's nearly always true it's particularly true at the Orange Bowl: Oregon has to find a way to win at the line of scrimmage, a mix of plays to pierce this defensive front and keep them from teeing off on Dante Moore.

The heart of their defense is inside linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, a former quarterback with tremendous instincts and desire. He flies to the football, sometimes literally.