If the Oregon Ducks are going to win a national championship this season, a handful of things will need to break right in their direction. Not only will they have to overcome losing both of their star coordinators from last season, but Dante Moore needs to level up even more so. After all, he chose to come back to school for one more year, as opposed to entering the NFL Draft. But they do have this...
Based on the latest win total projections from FanDuel, Oregon has an easy schedule to go win it all.
- Illinois Fighting Illini: 7.5
- Indiana Hoosiers: 10.5
- Iowa Hawkeyes: 7.5
- Maryland Terrapins: 4.5
- Michigan Wolverines: 8.5
- Michigan State Spartans: 3.5
- Minnesota Golden Gophers: 5.5
- Nebraska Cornhuskers: 5.5
- Northwestern Wildcats: 5.5
- Ohio State Buckeyes: 9.5
- Oregon Ducks: 10.5
- Penn State Nittany Lions: 9.5
- Purdue Boilermakers: 3.5
- Rutgers Scarlet Knights: 4.5
- UCLA Bruins: 6.5
- USC Trojans: 8.5
- Washington Huskies: 7.5
- Wisconsin Badgers: 6.5
Take a look at who Josh Pate has at the top of this graphic when it comes to the Big Ten win totals...
🚨PATE STATE ALERT🚨
— Josh Pate (@JoshPateCFB) March 13, 2026
Big Ten win totals released by @FDSportsbook pic.twitter.com/bmbl7xjkSd
At this time, Indiana and Oregon are sitting atop the rest of the conference at a projected 10.5 wins apiece for 2026. Since they do not play each other during the regular season, they could conceivably meet each other in Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game, possibly both undefeated. While Ohio State being a game off Oregon's trail at 9.5 seems fair, why is Penn State in this same grouping?
FanDuel may love Oregon entering this year, but let's see if they finally have what it takes to win it all.
Oregon is more of a national championship contender than people realize
For those who need a bit of a refresher, here is who Oregon will be facing this year on the schedule.
Date | Opponent | Location |
|---|---|---|
Sept. 5 | Boise State Broncos | Eugene, OR |
Sept. 12 | at Oklahoma State Cowboys | Stillwater, OK |
Sept. 19 | Portland State Vikings | Eugene, OR |
Sept. 26 | at USC Trojans | Los Angeles, CA |
Oct. 3 | BYE | |
Oct. 10 | UCLA Bruins | Eugene, OR |
Oct. 17 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | Eugene, OR |
Oct. 24 | at Illinois Fighting Illini | Champaign, IL |
Oct. 31 | Northwestern Wildcats | Eugene, OR |
Nov. 7 | at Ohio State Buckeyes | Columbus, OH |
Nov. 14 | Michigan Wolverines | Eugene, OR |
Nov. 21 | at Michigan State Spartans | East Lansing, MI |
Nov. 28 | Washington Huskies | Eugene, OR |
Dec. 5 | Big Ten Championship | Indianapolis, IN |
There are a few challenging spots, but Oregon might be built to run the Big Ten gauntlet this season.
In the non-conference, Oregon draws Boise State, Oklahoma State, and Portland State. While the Ducks will have play the Cowboys on the road in Stillwater, do you remember how awful the Pokes were in Mike Gundy's final seasons at the helm of his alma mater? Eric Morris is a promising up-and-coming head coach, but Oklahoma State has not been this bad in generations. Oregon beats them.
So if the Ducks enter Big Ten play with a 3-0 record in the non-conference, what are reasonable outcomes for them in league play? Its three hardest games are at USC, at Ohio State, and home vs. Michigan. That feels like an impossible spot for the Wolverines. If Oregon splits the pair at USC and Ohio State, we could be looking at a potential No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff for the Ducks.
While the rest of their Big Ten schedule is not a total cake walk, Oregon is fortunate to draw the likes of Michigan State, Northwestern, and UCLA instead of Indiana, Iowa, and honestly Penn State this regular season. Because it will play a respectable non-conference, Oregon could conceivably check every box in the eyes of the Selection Committee. Will it beat the bogeyman that is Indiana, though?
Overall, whoever wins the Big Ten is likely going to be the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. That has been the case the last three years. The only way that may not happen is if an SEC champion goes undefeated or Miami does the same out of the ACC, and the Big Ten winner has one loss on the resume. Right now, Oregon is in the driver's seat to get back to Indianapolis for the second time here.
Ultimately, Oregon is one of six teams who made the playoff last year who feel like way-too-early locks this year. Along with the Ducks, we must throw Georgia, Indiana, Miami, Ohio State, and Texas Tech into that grouping. Because the fourth-best team in the Big Ten has yet to emerge, that makes a team like Oregon firmly inside the top three of this league strong and powerful. It is good to be them.
Right now, anything short of playing in a national semfinal again should be met with disappointment.