Oregon must counter Texas Tech 'superpower' to survive Orange Bowl

Former Duck tight end George Wrighster does some of the best college football analysis on the internet on his YouTube channel and college football podcast.

In his holiday episode Wednesday the six-year NFL veteran talked about Texas Tech's "superpower," two things they do exceptionally well that the Ducks have to be prepared for to win their College Football Playoff quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl in Miami, 9 a.m. PT on New Year's Day at Hard Rock Stadium, televised on ESPN.

1. Plus-17 turnover margin

The TTU offense thrives on short fields, momentum shifts and extra possessions, and the Red Raider defense creates a lot of them. Aggressive and physical, they attack the ball on every play, a defense that gobbled up 15 opponent fumbles this season while intercepting 16 passes for a total of 31 turnovers gained, tops in the FBS.

Their Unanimous All-American linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, winner of Nagurski, Bednarik, Butkus and Lombardi Awards, leads the defensive assault with 117 tackles and seven forced fumbles, four interceptions. Junior cornerback Brice Pollock snatched a team-leading five interceptions, while linebacker Ben Roberts contributed three.

The Red Raiders come at opponents from all angles. Dante Moore has to be impeccable with his decision-making on passes over the middle. Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill have to keep the ball high and tight, being mindful to finish runs strong and avoid punchouts in the scrum. Often it's the second tackler that attacks the ball.

Conversely Behren Morton and the Texas Tech offense suffered just six fumbles all year. Morton threw only four interceptions in 300 pass attempts, though backup Will Hammond tossed seven.

The Ducks are a 2.5-point favorite over the Big 12 Champions in what projects as a close game. Winning the turnover battle against an opponent that's made a living off turnovers is crucial. An extra possession, a short-field score-- these are elements that swing the momentum, and close, big games hinge on it.

2. Elite third-down conversion rate

With a balanced attack that features tall wide receivers and a strong running game Joey McGuire's Raiders convert third downs at 50.5 percent, 11th in the country. They are hard to get off the field, and Oregon is coming off a game where they struggled to do so, allowing 506 yards and 34 points against Group of 5 opponent James Madison.

TTU typically stays ahead of the chains with a reliable, explosive ground attack. At 5-10, 215 Cameron Dickey is built for power, averaging 5.5 yards a carry while piling up 1,095 yards this year. Change of pace back J'Koby Williams is a speed guy at 5-10, 185, a sophomore from Beckville, Texas.

He's gashed opponents for 787 yards and six touchdowns, also at a clip of 5.5 yards a carry. In November Williams broke loose for a 41-yard touchdown against Kansas State on his way to 135 yards on 17 carries.

The two reliable backs set Morton up to employ play-action or take shots on favorable down and distances. The Ducks have to counter that 42.5 points a game efficiency with some run stuffs and pressure. Dominating in several of their games, the Ducks have to get off the field or force field goals, and to do that, they have to win first down.

With Finney, Canaday and Obidegwu all among the leaders in the Big Ten in opponent completion percentage, the Ducks have a decent chance to hold TTU below their imposing scoring average, but the defensive line has to play strong against an accurate pocket passer in Morton.

On defense, the goal is to take something away.

Wrighster mentions one other thing that doesn't quite ring true. He talks about Tech's Red Zone capability, but while they've scored on 87.67 percent of their trips inside the 20 (46th nationally) they've pushed it in for touchdowns 56 percent of the time, which falls to No. 98. They've settled for field goals 23 times-- that's Oregon's opportunity, rather than a TTU edge.