The Oregon Ducks weren't able to continue building momentum this weekend as the team was on the bye. Coming off a pivotal win over USC, everyone would've loved to see the team back in action, continuing to build toward College Football Playoff contention, but the bye came at a solid time with injuries. While the Ducks didn't do anything to affect their playoff chances, the computer models gave the team a slight hit after the bye.
How ESPN's Football Power Index views Oregon's Playoff chances post bye week
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Oregon’s chances of making the College Football Playoff are now down to 39% from 41.1%. The easiest path to securing a place in the Playoff is by winning the Big Ten, which ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks a 16.1% chance of doing, down from last week's 19.1% mark due to other schools picking up league wins. The Ducks were given a 3.2% chance of winning the National Championship last week, but that number also fell to 2.3% while the Ducks were on the bye.
The good news is that there wasn't a team that jumped the Ducks' FPI ranking of 9th, as the hits were more so due to other top schools improving their record. Overall, Oregon may have seen their chances take a hit, but it was a very succesful weekend for the Ducks.
Just 6 schools are given a more than 1% chance of winning the Big Ten as some of the other contenders have imploded over the last few weekends. Back-to-back losses for Penn State, Michigan, Washington, and Illinois to open league play has taken each school out of the picture barring a crazy turn of events.
The Ducks' resume continues to get better as each week goes on, even with Oklahoma State also spending the weekend on the bye. USC picked up a big win in the Coliseum over Washington, while Boise State continues to hold serve with a 4-1 record on the season.
Saturday's game against UCLA will give the Ducks another chance to pick up a resume building win, and move one step closer to College Football Playoff contention. The FPI gives the Bruins a 12.3% chance of making the Playoff and a 1.3% chance of winning the Big Ten, so a win could knock them out of the race.
If the Ducks can pick up a win over the Bruins, the action around the country should only help Oregon's chances as well. Georgia and Alabama face off as the 2nd and 6th ranked teams in the FPI meaning one top contender will take a hit. Indiana and Nebraska face off as unbeatens, which could bring another team closer to the Ducks. Kentucky and LSU are both 4-1, and one will be pushed to the brink by taking a second loss this early. Add in some potential upsets, and other teams taking 3rd losses, and a winning weekend would be great for Oregon.
The early loss to Oklahoma State made the margin razor thin for the Ducks, but if Dan Lanning's team continues to hold serve, this team can end up right where they hoped to be by winning Big Ten games.
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