As the college football season comes down the final stretch, Oregon's becoming one of those teams you don't want to face right now, but it still might not be enough to make the College Football Playoff. The Ducks have started to push toward the CFP over the last three weekends with wins over Northwestern, Ohio State, and Michigan, but with 3 losses on the season, Oregon doesn't control its own destiny.
The easiest path to the College Football Playoff was through the Big Ten Championship Game, but getting there required plenty of help and a few upsets along the way. The alternative is to continue climbing the CFP Top 25 rankings and strengthen their case for an at-large bid. However, after a weekend that lacked the chaos Oregon needed, that path is beginning to narrow.
Where Oregon's College Football Playoff path lies after Week 11
The Friday Night games and the first window of games on Saturday provided Oregon with the exact results the Ducks needed to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. On Friday Night, UCLA handled business, giving Illinois their 3rd loss in league play, and knocking them below the Ducks. On Saturday Morning, Wisconsin shockingly let Maryland storm back to knock the Badgers out of Big Ten Championship Game contention.
The biggest issue for the Ducks is that Oregon needed Lincoln Riley to win a big game, which he only accomplishes when Ohio State is without its starting quarterback. Indiana now has two Big Ten games remaining, and with the Trojans failing to beat them, it looks even less likely that they will suffer another loss. The other team left blocking the Ducks is Iowa who demolished Purdue, and sits in a similar spot to Indiana.
The path to making the Big Ten Championship Game now counts on each of Indiana or Iowa losing one of their two final games, unless UCLA manages to lose their final 2 games, bringing tiebreakers into play.
If Indiana and Iowa lose one of their two final games along with Oregon and UCLA winning out, the Ducks would face the Bruins in the Big Ten Championship Game. If UCLA loses out, Indiana wins atleast one more game, Iowa loses once more, and Oregon wins out, the Ducks will face the Hoosiers in the conference championship. If UCLA loses out, Indiana loses out, Ohio State wins out, Oregon wins out, and Iowa loses once more, the Ducks would then face the Buckeyes.
The path to the Big Ten Championship Game feels so narrow as the schedule for the teams the Ducks need to eye are all very easy the rest of the way. Indiana faces Washington and Purdue, UCLA faces Michigan and USC, and Iowa faces Illinois and Nebraska.
The path now may be to reach the College Football Playoff via the at-large bids, but there wasn't enough chaos this weekend to help the Ducks. The only teams ranked ahead of the No. 16 Ducks to lose were No. 14 Houston on Friday Night and No. 11 Kentucky to Florida.
The other issue for the Ducks is that, with the lack of chaos, the resume of wins got much worse on Saturday. USC lost to Indiana, taking a 3rd loss, which could knock them out of the Top 25. Ohio State added another win, but beating Northwestern won't give them a boost in the rankings. The loss to Oklahoma State only looks worse now, as the Cowboys will fall outside the Top 25 again after their loss to Texas Tech.
Over the final two weeks, Oregon's going to need to hope for chaos; however, it can come if this team is going to reach the Playoff. Tuesday's College Football Playoff rankings will reveal just how far the team needs to jump, and from there everyone will know who the Ducks need to root against. In the end, if the Ducks miss out, they can only blame themselves for 3 losses, but this team is getting hot at the end of the season, and you would love to see this group given the chance to make a run.
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