Week 3 of the college football season is in the books, and Oregon fans were able to sit back and enjoy the weekend after the Ducks played on Friday Night. This was always the biggest cupcake game on the schedule, and Dan Lanning's team treated it as much, picking up an 84-0 win over Portland State.
Beating up on the Vikings who entered the matchup with an 0-3 record is far from a statement win for the Ducks, and it served as more of a get-right game. Oregon still has to show improvements against a tough opponent, but if there's one group that will love Friday Night's result it's the computer models.
How ESPN's Football Power Index views Oregon's Playoff chances post Week 3
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Oregon’s chances of making the College Football Playoff are now up from 12.3% to 20.6%. The easiest path to securing a place in the Playoff is by winning the Big Ten, which ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks a 9.2% chance of doing, up from last week's 5.2% mark. The Ducks were given just a 0.6% chance of winning the National Championship last weekend but are now up to 3%.
This was a great weekend of results for Oregon. Texas A&M getting stunned by former Ducks offensive coordinator Will Stein wiped out another Top 10 team, while LSU saw their chances slashed after losing to Ole Miss. Add in some 2-0 teams facing off against each other, and every possible loss only helps the Ducks.
Interestingly, Oregon moved up 4 places in the FPI rankings with the win over the Vikings, while this weekend's opponent, USC, fell 6 places to 18th after losing to Rutgers. This weekend's game is going to have massive implications as the Ducks and Trojans are separated by just a 0.2% chance of making the CFP.
The fans shouldn't be too moved by the Ducks' blowout win, but it's easy to see why the model is high on Oregon. ESPN's FPI is calculated as a measure of a team's expected point margin against an average opponent on a neutral field. Given that the Ducks just added 84 points to their offensive output while pitching a shutout, the data point is likely an outlier.
The good news for the Ducks is that a win will only vault Oregon's chances up a notch while knocking down USC, and other results will only help. This weekend, top 25 teams face off in No. 1 Texas vs. No. 14 Tennessee, No. 4 Ole Miss vs. No. 21 Florida, No. 17 Iowa vs. No. 18 Michigan, No. 10 LSU vs. No. 23 Texas A&M, and No. 19 Missouri vs No. 24 Mississippi State.
The non-conference schedule is over for most teams, and as league play really begins, teams will only start to get upset more often. If the Ducks are able to get more upsets like we saw this past weekend with Texas A&M, it would go a long way in working this team back into the College Football Playoff picture.
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