Dan Lanning, Oregon Ducks lead Big Ten in ESPN FPI’s odds to get to CFP National Championship Game

If you ask ESPN's FPI preseason projections, the Oregon Ducks have the best shot in the Big Ten to make the College Football Playoff national title game.
Oregon Spring Football Game
Oregon Spring Football Game / Ali Gradischer/GettyImages

The Oregon Ducks haven’t really been in the Big Ten for very long, but it appears that ESPN’s FPI is pretty smitten with the Oregon football team and its odds to make it to the National Championship Game. The Ducks are apparently the Big Ten’s top contender to reach the national championship game, according to ESPN’s preseason FPI projections.

Ahead of the 2024 Oregon football season, ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks a 24.4 percent chance of making it to the national title game. That’s the best amongst all the teams in the Big Ten this season. Clearly, ESPN’s FPI feels pretty good about the Ducks’ ability to compete with the nation’s best and their potential to make a deep playoff run.

Following Oregon closely is the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ryan Day and his Ohio State football team have decent odds of making a national title appearance. According to the FPI preseason projections, the Buckeyes have a 19 percent chance of getting there.

They could be Oregon’s biggest obstacle to a national title this season.

Close behind Ohio State is James Franklin and the Penn State Nittany Lions, another perennial contender in the Big Ten. They’ve got the third-best odds among Big Ten teams to compete in the national title game at 13.3 percent.

Michigan, the defending national champs, hold a 4 percent chance of making it to the national title game, per ESPN’s FPI preseason projections. After that? Well, not much of a chance is really given around to any team. 

Oregon football given best preseason chance in Big Ten to make national championship, according to ESPN’s FPI

Here’s what the full list looks like for the Big Ten, according to ESPN’s FPI:

  • Oregon Ducks - 24.4 percent
  • Ohio State Buckeyes - 19 percent
  • Penn State Nittany Lions - 13.3 percent
  • Michigan Wolverines - 4 percent
  • USC Trojans - 1.1 percent
  • Washington Huskies - 0.3 percent
  • Iowa Hawkeyes - 0.3 percent
  • Nebraska Cornhuskers - 0.2 percent
  • Maryland Terrapins - 0.2 percent
  • Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 0.2 percent
  • Wisconsin Badgers - 0.1 percent
  • UCLA Bruins - 0.1 percent
  • Northwestern Wildcats - 0.0 percent
  • Purdue Boilermakers - 0.0 percent
  • Minnesota Golden Gophers - 0.0 percent
  • Illinois Fighting Illini - 0.0 percent
  • Michigan State Spartans - 0.0 percent
  • Indiana Hoosiers - 0.0 percent

The Oregon football team has a real chance to make a splash in the Big Ten this season, but Dan Lanning and the Ducks will still face some challenges. Oregon will need to contend with the strong competition posed by the Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines, and other longtime members of the conference.