ESPN’s FPI preseason projections give Oregon best odds to win Big Ten in 2024

There are a number of powerhouse programs with longstanding traditions and impressive history in the Big Ten. But, according to ESPN’s FPI’s preseason projections, one of the newest additions to the Big Ten might just be the favorite to win the conference. And if you would guess that’s the Oregon Ducks, then you’d be right about what ESPN’s FPI is projecting.

The Oregon football program has emerged as the frontrunner to win the Big Ten title this season, according to ESPN’s preseason FPI projections. The Ducks, who were established as a powerhouse in the Pac-12, have a chance to make a significant move in their new conference. 

ESPN’s FPI preseason projections has Oregon sitting at a 37.5 percent chance to win the Big Ten. That’s the best in the conference. Flat out. It’s better than any of the other newcomers (by far) and puts the Ducks ahead of longtime Big Ten teams like the Ohio State Buckeyes. 

Speaking of the Buckeyes, a perennial contender in the conference, they’re entering 2024 with the second-best chance of winning the Big Ten at 25.7 percent, according to the FPI projections. That’s certainly going to go over well with Ohio State football fans, who are certainly used to seeing the Buckeyes thrive and dominating in the conference.

Oregon Ducks Favored to Win the Big Ten, According to ESPN's Preseason FPI

Just behind Ohio State sit the Penn State Nittany Lions, another traditional Big Ten power program. James Franklin and the Nittany Lions have the third-best odds of winning the Big Ten at 22.2 percent, according to ESPN’s FPI. Behind them? Well, it’s the Michigan Wolverines with 7.3 percent, who are fresh off of winning the conference and a national title last season.

USC gets a 2.9 percent chance. That’s not exactly great, but it’s the second-highest of any of the Big Ten newcomers, so that makes it somewhat notable.

Here’s what the full list looks like heading into the season:

• Oregon Ducks - 37.5 percent
• Ohio State Buckeyes - 25.7 percent
• Penn State Nittany Lions - 22.2 percent
• Michigan Wolverines - 7.3 percent
• USC Trojans - 2.9 percent
• Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 1.0 percent
• Iowa Hawkeyes - 0.9 percent
• Wisconsin Badgers - 0.5 percent
• Washington Huskies - 0.5 percent
• Maryland Terrapins - 0.4 percent
• UCLA Bruins - 0.3 percent
• Northwestern Wildcats - 0.1 percent
• Purdue Boilermakers - 0.1 percent
• Minnesota Golden Gophers - 0.1 percent
• Illinois Fighting Illini - 0.1 percent
• Nebraska Cornhuskers - 0.6 percent
• Michigan State Spartans - 0.0 percent
• Indiana Hoosiers - 0.0 percent

It’d be pretty great (for Oregon football fans) if this is how things played out this season, but it’s still way too early to tell exactly how things will unfold. Of course, there’s no way that the other Big Ten teams (especially the ones who’ve been in the conference for a while now) will like those numbers.