What win total does Oregon basketball need to make the NCAA Tournament?

Oregon has seven games remaining in the season, how many can they lose before sacrificing their shot at March Madness?
Oregon guard Jackson Shelstad leaps along the baseline as the Oregon Ducks host Washington.
Oregon guard Jackson Shelstad leaps along the baseline as the Oregon Ducks host Washington. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA

After splitting their weekend against the Washington schools, the Ducks dropped in the Pac-12 standings. Now at third in the conference, with tournament season rapidly approaching, Oregon needs to rack up a few more wins to secure their place for March Madness.

Sitting at 16-8 overall, the Ducks currently boast a winning percentage of 66.7 percent. However, there are only 68 spots in the bracket and the team doesn’t quite make the cut at the moment.

Oregon has just seven games remaining in the season and I would argue that they can only lose two of them if they want to go dancing next month.

Remaining schedule:

  • At Oregon State – Feb. 16
  • At Stanford – Feb. 22
  • At Cal – Feb. 24
  • Vs. Oregon State – Feb. 28
  • At Arizona – March 2
  • Vs. Colorado – March 7
  • Vs. Utah – March 9

If the Ducks fail to secure five wins over the next four weeks, meaning they would sit below 21-10 overall, I think they would have to win the Pac-12 Tournament.

The conference tourney will be in Las Vegas from March 13-16. The Ducks have not won the tournament since the 2018-19 season.

However, if they do win at least five games over the rest of the regular season, I think they simply need to make it to the semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament.

Despite the loss to the Cougars last weekend, Oregon has looked good against their conference opponents with big men N’Faly Dante and Nate Bittle getting back to game action as well as Dana Altman’s always-present coaching prowess.

I expect those wins to be highly possible for the Ducks. I can see them defeating Oregon State in both matchups, sweeping the Bay Area schools (Stanford and Call), as well as beating the mountain schools (Colorado and Utah) at home.

If the Ducks can reach 21+ wins before the regular season concludes, I think men will go dancing with a ticket to the NCAA Tournament.

Selection Sunday for the tournament is March 17 and will be aired on CBS. The First Four games start just two days later on March 19.

If the Ducks don’t clinch a spot in the NCAA tourney, the NIT Tournament will start on March 19 as well.