Sting factor: Grading the impact of 8 transfer decisions at Oregon

Saturday backup quarterback Austin Novosad announced he intends to enter the Transfer Portal when it opens, making him the eighth player on the Oregon roster to announce such a decision, joining the following players:

-WR Justius Lowe C

-DB Sione Laulea B

-DB Solomon Davis D

-DB Dakoda Fields C

-DB Jahlil Florence B

-DB Kingston Lopa B

-OL Lipe Moala C

(Austin Novosad B)

Note that the grade is not for the player, rather it's an evaluation of the transfer's impact on the Oregon two-deep. They are all Division I college football players with a chance to play somewhere. Lopa and Novosad are B's because they are or were primary backups at one point or another. Florence and Laulea are B's because they'll likely become starters elsewhere.

Two starters with NFL prospects, defensive tackle Bear Alexander and center Iapani "Poncho" Laloulu, announced in the last two weeks that they were returning to the Ducks for their senior seasons.

Key players back, reserves leaving for playing time

Entering his fifth cycle, Dan Lanning has yet to lose a starter to the portal, though Lopa played in 13 games this year and Laulea played in six, Florence three.

In Lopa and Laulea, new defensive coordinator Chris Hampton loses two tall defensive backs, Lopa 6-5 and Laulea 6-4. Lopa, Laulea, Florence, and Fields were all four-star recruits. Florence started 9 games as a redshirt freshman in 2023 before a knee injury against Washington that sidelined him for all of 2024.

Novosad too was a four-star at quarterback, flipped from Baylor by Will Stein when he took over from Kenny Dillingham in 2023. There's wide speculation that the Dripping Springs, Texas native will follow Stein to Kentucky, although it's a big leap to go from battling Brock Thomas for backup snaps to starting in the SEC. North Texas or TCU are other possible landing spots, each needing a quarterback after a starter's decision to transfer.

In three seasons at UO Novosad completed 12-15 passes for 99 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions. His decision to leave naturally increases the chatter about Dante Moore's impending decision. Why would "Novo" leave if he had a chance to battle for the starting job at Oregon this spring?

The two decisions are independent of each other rather than Novosad's being a leading indicator. Moore has until January 15 to decide, and the NFL wants to pay him a lot of money. Though he'd benefit greatly from another year as a college starter to refine his game, he's looking at a $50 million payday, very hard to turn down.

Dillon Gabriel, Bo Nix, Justin Herbert and Marcus Mariota all ran it back for one more season at Oregon, and all four profited.

Novosad was a credit to the program in his three years here. He worked hard, he competed, he accepted his role and never complained. He wants an opportunity to be the guy and earn his own shot at a career in football and/or a solid NIL deal.

While understandable given the urgency to find a new team in time to enroll for winter classes, these decisions in the middle of a playoff run again underscore how flawed the college football calendar is. Playoffs need to be four consecutive weekends in December with the championship on New Year's Day, the portal opening immediately after. It's ridiculous to enter the last three rounds of a championship with key backups missing.

In all these cases, the Ducks will be fine in 2026. They'll make some key additions in the portal and they have a wealth of incoming talent. Attrition is normal, and this remains one of the best programs in college football.

Players are going to leave every year, and Dan Lanning and chief of operations Marshall Malchow will continue to use that reality to craft a talented roster and winning culture.

Note: Should the Ducks make it to College Football National Championship Game, players like Moore, Kenyon Sadiq and Matayo Uiagalelei will get an extended deadline on their NFL decisions, to around January 23 or 24.