Survivor pool confidence level, taking the Ducks game by game: Montana State

Last season with a veteran quarterback, a thousand-yard receiver and running back and a first-round draft pick at left tackle, the Ducks nearly lost to Idaho and Boise State.

After two weeks all the pundits were wondering what was wrong with them, and Washington fans were predicting 2-10.

No game in football is guaranteed. Fans can talk about creampuffs that look like extra bye weeks, post Ws on the pocket schedule or the refrigerator magnet version, but every win has to be earned with execution.

There's a standard that has to be maintained. Quarterbacks, running backs and receivers have to take care of the football. Bryce Boettcher and his defense have to put opponents on the ground.

It took a punt return and a kickoff return to beat the Broncos. If Will Howard hadn't futzed around in the pocket, or Jeremiah Smith hadn't been called for pushing off, the Ducks might not have beaten Ohio State the first time.

No wins are automatic. Creampuff or not, everybody gets up to play the Ducks.

Still, it's fun to go through the 2025 schedule, and think about it in terms of confidence level. If you were in a survivor pool and had to win the game to stay alive for the prize, what's the confidence level, Week One to the end of the year?

August 30, Montana State at Oregon

The Bobcats played in the FCS Championship game in January against perennial power North Dakota State and lost 35-32. They played Idaho in December, the team that took Oregon into the fourth quarter and won 52-19.

So by the transitive properly the Ducks should lose by three touchdowns. Fortunately other factors are involved.

MSU graduated a big senior class including quarterback Tommy Mellott, who finished his Bob career with 33 quarterback wins, 43 rushing touchdowns 3,523 ,rushing yards, 5,810 passing yards, and 53 passing touchdowns, all high on the school's all-time list.

Mellott got drafted in the sixth round by the Raiders, where Pete Carroll is trying him out at receiver. Six other key players transferred to FBS schools after a 15-1 season.

The Bobcats have brought in Justin Lamson to replace him, a transfer from Stanford. In two seasons with The Cardinal Lamson threw 62 passes for 804 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions, sacked 25 times, completing 46 percent of his throws.

He's 6-2, 215, a former three-star recruit from Oakridge High, in El Dorado Hills, Calif.

Head coach Brent Vigen returns just four starters on offense, four on defense. Three of the returnees on offense are o-linemen, Titan Fleischmann, Burke Mastel, and JT Reed. The other is 1,000-yard rusher Adam Jones.

Their best receiver is Taco Dowler, a 5-9, 175 slot guy from Billings who caught 38 passes for 597 yards and 11 touchdowns, five of those TDs coming in the playoffs.

Jones is 6-1, 200 from Missoula, a tough runner who pounded out 1,152 yards in 2024, averaging 6.3 yards a carry with 14 scores. He raced for 197 yards in the rivalry win over Montana, including an 88-yard run.

Last September the Bobcats beat New Mexico, the first FCS-over-FBS win of the season.

Jones is elusive in the open field, a big-play guy.

Survivor pool confidence level: 90%

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