In Big Ten football there are distinct tiers, the "no shot" tier comprised of squads that simply don't have the depth and talent to support a winning season, the "possible with luck and help" group, the contenders and the truly elite, likely favorites for the conference title.
Washington, 4-5 last year in league play and 6-7 overall, is the epitome of the luck and help group.
With a few breaks and superlative seasons from playmakers like Demond Williams, Jonah Coleman and Denzel Boston they could climb toward a winning season and contention in the B1G, but everything has to break right.
The offensive line has to significantly improve. The defense has to overcome the loss of Thaddeus Dixon and leading tackler Carson Bruener. They have to win a road game.
Williams flashed signs of becoming one of the better quarterbacks in the Big Ten last season in a couple of late-season starts, completing 78 percent of his passes and throwing for eight touchdowns. Coleman is a thousand-yard running back and Boston a dangerous receiver.
This year the Big Ten's "no chance" tier consists of Northwestern, Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin. Once among the conference's contenders, the Badgers get relegated due to the league's toughest schedule, one that features eight Top 25 teams, road games at Alabama, Michigan, Oregon and Indiana.
Joining Washington in the "luck and help" tier are UCLA, USC, and Minnesota.
SC is 15-11 over the last two years under Lincoln Riley. They've ramped up their recruiting for the 2026 cycle with the nation's No. 1 class in the middle of May, but that won't help them this fall.
The Trojans open this season with four easy wins in Missouri State, Georgia Southern, at Purdue and Michigan State before traveling to Illinois on September 27.
They miss Ohio State and Penn State this season but have to travel to Eugene in November, Notre Dame in October. The rest of the schedule is favorable.
It wouldn't take much to turn things around in L.A. Last season they had a lead in the fourth quarter in every game except Notre Dame, a 49-35 loss.
D'Anton Lynn is his second year as SC defensive coordinator, but his unit ranks 108th in returning production. Jayden Maiava won the starting job in the late season last year and returns at quarterback after throwing for 11 touchdowns in the last half of the year.
Lynn brought in some big dogs on the defensive line, edge rusher Sam Greene from Kentucky, Georgia transfer Jamaal Jarrett at nose tackle, 6-5, 380 and tackle Keeshawn Silver, also from UK, 6-4, 322.
With the schedule they have in 2025, if the Trojans play a little better in the fourth quarter they can be an 8-4 team. One concern is running back, where they graduated thousand-yard rusher Woody Marks.
Quinten Joyner rushed for 478 yards as a freshman with three touchdowns, an impressive 7.6 yards a carry but he transferred to Texas Tech. The Trojans picked up running backs Eli Sanders and Waymond Jordan in the transfer portal.
Sanders, 5-11, 194 might be a find. He put up 1,063 yards at New Mexico, 7.2 yards a carry.