Here's the reality: in their last game, Oregon's defense gave up 509 yards and 34 points to FCS James Madison in the College Football Playoff.
Meanwhile the Texas Tech defense has given up a total of 23 points in their last four games. They've had two shutouts in the last six. They haven't given up more than 26 points to any opponent all season, a loss to Arizona State on October 18, 26-22 with quarterback Behren Morton out with a knee injury.
The TTU front seven features two unanimous All-Americans in linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and David Bailey. With 117 tackles, four interceptions, 11 tackles for loss and seven forced fumbles, Rodriguez swept the postseason defensive awards this season, winning the Chuck Bednarik Award, Bronko Nagurski Trophy, Butkus Award, and Lombardi Award, also invited to New York as a Heisman finalist.
Tosh Lupoi in his last three postseason games: No bueno
Opponent | Yards | Points |
|---|---|---|
James Madison 2025 | 509 | 34 |
OSU Rose Bowl | 500 | 41 |
PSU B1G Championship | 518 | 38 |
Yes, the Ducks substituted liberally after gaining a 48-13 lead against JMU. Yes, the last 35 minutes of the game after Oregon went out in front 34-3 were garbage time. But Oregon has struggled all year to stop third and short, fourth and short. And the substitutes that took the field in the second half should have played better.
The Texas Tech defense annihilates people. Bailey leads the team with 13.5 sacks and 6-3, 240 outside linebacker Romello Height has nine. As a team they create tremendous havoc, 39 sacks, 96 tackles for loss, 22 forced fumbles, 16 interceptions. They've held opponents to a third down conversion rate of 22.3 percent, the stingiest in the nation. On 4th down, 29 percent.
Texas Tech EDGE David Bailey is the clear EDGE1 in the 2026 draft class. Bailey is a twitched up pass rusher who can win with speed or power. He wins reps at a very high level and currently owns the highest pass rush win rate in true pass sets by a P4 EDGE rusher since 2015. He… pic.twitter.com/RyTvuUSl7C
— Adam Carter (@impactfbdata) December 20, 2025
Frankly, David Bailey is the player Oregon fans though Matayo Uiagalelei would be, disruptive and a terror to block. Uiagalelei has had one sack in his last eight games, five all season, less than half of what he produced in 2024.
The Ducks rank 129th in the country in stopping fourth down, giving up conversions 70 percent of the time.
Will Backus of cbssports.com wrote, "Don't be surprised if the Red Raiders cruise to victory, though, especially after the Ducks failed to completely rout what should have been a haplessly overmatched No. 12 James Madison in the first round."
While the Oregon defense is improved over 2024 and has looked dominant at times, shutting down Rutgers and Washington, the Red Raiders are on another level, the best defense the Ducks have faced since Indiana. With next-level linebackers and a stout defensive line, they're capable of duplicating the disruptive, frustrating game plan the Hoosiers brought to Autzen.
Unless Stein, Lupoi and their units find another gear in practice over the next ten days while making some sharp game-planning decisions, Backus' stark prediction could come true. The Ducks have to come to the Orange Bowl ready for a fight. That's what awaits them.