After a shutout win in the Orange Bowl over Texas Tech, Oregon's odds to win the National Championship soared to +400, half of what they were when the tournament started.
In spite of an historic performance by their defense to beat Texas Tech 23-0, the Ducks are a year away from winning the College Football Playoff. Their offense has a fatal flaw, and it was exposed today by a quick, swarming Texas Tech defense.
The Ducks' tackles Isaiah World and Alex Harkey can't block elite edge rushers, and being a young quarterback, Dante Moore gets rattled under pressure. He threw into coverage on one fourth down, missed a wide-open Kenyon Sadiq on another.
Sadiq was three steps clear of his defender, but with a pass rusher in his face, Moore couldn't find him.
The Ducks suffered a baker's dozen of unforced errors and self-inflicted wounds Saturday in Miami. High snaps. Low snaps. Muffed exchanges. Presnap penalties.
Against Texas Tech, Oregon could not run the football. They managed 64 yards on 47 carries, 1.4 yards per try. Their longest run of the day was nine yards. They could not protect the quarterback. They were 4-19 on third down and 4-8 on fourth down, 4-6 in the Red Zone.
Oregon defense was magnificent while the offense can't get out of its own way
The defense played superbly, creating multiple opportunities the offense squandered. The Ducks had possessions that began on the Texas Tech 33, the Texas Tech 29, 41, and 25 that produced a total of three points. Missed blocks, botched handoffs and errant snaps took a massive amount of points off the board.
David Bailey has the worst aesthetic of any football player. No gloves, tape, sleeves, etc. Wears 31 as an edge rusher. Pants above knees. Plain white socks
— Mike Kennedy (@MikeKennedyNFL) January 1, 2026
And it doesn’t matter one bit because he’s every bit an absolute athletic freak. Top-5 pick talentpic.twitter.com/Uox2Cj75Tx
By the end of the first half they had outgained the Big 12 Champs 198-88 and led 6-0. The most tenacious the Oregon defense was, the more tentatively and sloppy the team played on offense. They were overwhelmed and out of synch.
The defense kept pressing and earned a win, but all four of the teams remaining in the tournament have the physicality and quickness to exploit the flaws Oregon laid bare today. They can't block NFL talent at nose tackle or the edge, and by the semifinals, that's all that's left.
What made it even more maddening and inept was Will Stein's playcalling. He seems to stick dutifully to a preprogrammed script with little capacity for adjustments or problem-solving. The Red Raiders blew up his screen plays, but he kept running them. On fourth and goal Dante Moore rolled right to the short side, all three receivers crowded into one area, turnover on downs.
Stein seems limited in imagination and keeps making the same errors when the team faces an opponent with similar talent. And that's all that's left in the tournament.
It's fine to be aggressive and go for it on fourth down, provided you have a play to call that has a chance of success. Fourth and two seemed like a mile today. Moore's likely to find the Hoosiers simulated pressures similarly confusing.
Indiana is a four-point favorite in the Peach Bowl on January 9 from Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. It's a rematch from the game in Autzen in October, a game the Ducks lost 30-20. Their second cross-country trip in a week is apt to end in disappointment. It's hard to see them resolving these problems in eight days. Their run ends at the Peach. The portal opens tomorrow, an opportunity to craft a nimbler offensive line that's better suited for playoff football.
Their only hope to remain competitive Saturday is to overhaul the plan. The one thing this team can do effectively is quick tempo downfield passing, hitches, fades, outs, wheel routes. Keep Moore in a rhythm. Find Jamari Johnson. Run straight ahead with Jordon Davison, strictly quick-hitters. The lateral stuff, the screen game is useless, more likely to produce a turnover or a TFL than a first down.
For the rest of the CFP, this is a West Coast offense. It's the only way to disguise their fatal flaw. If they can get some rhythm going they can try an occasional shot downfield out of max protect, but five-man routes are a disaster without a safety valve. The Ducks can't block them.
Given how the offense is playing, Dan Lanning has to recalibrate the value of taking three points or pinning the opponent inside the ten. Saturday they gave TTU four huge momentum boosts and kept them in the game.