These are Oregon's three most likely first-round playoff foes

Oregon has secured a home-field playoff game in round one.
Nov 29, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Washington Huskies during the first half at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
Nov 29, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Washington Huskies during the first half at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

After a heartbreaking loss to No. 2 Indiana, the Oregon Ducks have been on a monstrous tear, going 6-0 while taking down Iowa, USC, and Washington. Currently 11-1, the No. 6 Ducks get a break from the action until the College Football Playoff starts. Oregon was bumped up to No. 4 in the AP top 25 poll, with the CFB Playoff rankings set to drop Tuesday night.

The Ducks could very well move up in the CFB Playoff seeding, with Texas A&M losing and coaches moving around. However, it is almost impossible for the Ducks to find themselves dropping below No. 7 before the playoff begins, meaning a playoff game will be held at Autzen Stadium. Based on a handful of projections, predictions, and current rankings, let's take a look at who could be visiting Oregon in the first round.

Now, all of this hangs on championship weekend. After Miami was eliminated from the ACC Championship game, Virginia and Duke will play for the title. The Big 12 will have a Texas Tech-BYU rematch, the Big Ten will have Ohio State vs. Indiana, and the SEC will have Georgia vs. Alabama.

For the group of 5, keep an eye on the AAC Championship game between Tulane and North Texas. The winner of that matchup will likely get an auto bid. If Alabama loses in the SEC championship, it would be its third loss. But we know the playoff committee does not like punishing teams for playing in the conference championship, so they will be in a tough spot.

Scenario 1: Oregon hosts Alabama

Can you imagine Alabama traveling across the country to face the Ducks in Eugene, with a playoff environment? Well, now it is a real possibility. If Alabama loses the championship game against Georgia but stays in, Dan Lanning could have a rematch with former Washington and current Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer.

If the committee ranks Oregon No. 7 for some reason, and Alabama sticks at No. 10, the Ducks would host the Crimson Tide. If Oregon stays put at No. 6 and Alabama slips down to No. 11, the same would be true. It all depends on how the committee views Alabama after a potential loss in the SEC championship. If Alabama upsets Georgia, this scenario becomes extremely unlikely.

Scenario 2: Virginia travels to Oregon

If Oregon doesn't play Alabama and is still in the No. 6 or 7 range, the Ducks will likely play Virginia. After Miami was shockingly eliminated from ACC title contention, its path to the playoff now looks rather grim. Virginia hosts Duke for the ACC title game, and if the 10-2 Cavaliers take care of the 7-5 Blue Devils, they will be in the playoffs.

Most likely, if Virginia gets in, they will be seeded No. 11 or 10, depending on how the pieces around them fall into place. If Oregon is No. 6 and Virginia is No. 11, it will be the Ducks vs. the Cavaliers. If the Ducks end up at No. 7 and the Cavaliers get No. 10, the Ducks still get the Cavaliers in the first round.

Scenario 3: The Ducks get what is left over

If Oregon jumps to No. 5, it will play the lowest-ranked team available. Currently, the most likely team would be the highest-ranked group of 5 champions, projected to be Tulane. The No. 5 seed gives the Ducks the best shot at advancing to the second round, as the No. 12 seed will be forced to travel to hostile territory in Eugene. If it does end up being Tulane, we could be in for a fun matchup you won't typically see, as the two sides have never played before.

Things could also get pretty weird fast at this spot. North Texas could win the AAC and be the Ducks' opponent over Tulane. Or maybe, there is a world where Duke upsets Virginia, and a second group of 5 champion gets in, like James Madison. Then, ACC would be left on the sidelines. All of this is hypothetical and subject to change. The committee could completely change everything, but as of right now, Alabama, Virginia, and Tulane are the three most likely opponents for Oregon.

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