Weather worsens for James Madison at Oregon; odds stay steady

In six days the James Madison Dukes and Oregon play football, the first step in the Ducks' bid for a first-ever national championship.

Duck fans saw this year how weather can be a great equalizer, shifting the focus of a game away from speed and talent and turning into a slugfest, a football survivor series where the only focus becomes, as Jordon Davison told himself during a 21-7 win over Wisconsin, "Protect the ball, protect the ball, protect the ball" before every snap.

At the Grateful Ducks Game Davison ran for 102 yards and two touchdowns while Dante Moore threw for just 86, leaving the game in the third quarter with a broken nose. Oregon won with defense, a 16-play, 99-yard drive in the second quarter that took the clock down to 1:07, another touchdown to start the second half, using a 35-yard run by Noah Whittington, a deflected 24-yard pass to Dakorien Moore and a 20-yard touchdown run by Davison. Ahead 14-0, they hung on from there.

Two weeks later they would win in Iowa 18-16 in similar conditions, wet and windy, a stubborn game of patience where the conditions put a lid on offensive fireworks.

It could be that way Saturday. As the game has gotten closer, the opening round College Football Playoff clash between the No. 12 Dukes, champions of the Sun Belt Conference and No. 5 Ducks, 11-1 and winners of six straight to end the season, the weather forecast has become progressively worse.

James Madison at Oregon, Saturday December 20, 4:30 p.m. PT at Autzen Stadium, TV on TNT, TruTV and HBO Max.

Currently Accuweather, the service used by ESPN, has downgraded the game to an evening low of 44 degrees with a 58 percent chance of rain, "Cloudy with a couple of showers." Winds, however, should stay between 6 and 12 mph from the south. No gales blowing out of Canada, which can be treacherous and nasty for the Autzen faithful.

Weather can change the football equation, adding a multiplier for ball security

In short, better than Wisconsin or Iowa but not a December to remember, weather that could help the Dukes stay closer as a team that runs the football 63 percent of the time and relies on a pressure defense.

The line has stayed steady throughout the week. The Ducks remain a 21.5-point favorite, a number that ticked down one point immediately after open but crept back to the dreaded three touchdowns and a hook by Monday. The over/under has dropped one point since odds were first released, hanging at 50.5 through the first eight days of wagering.

That suggests a final score of Oregon 35, JMU 14, a solid win that won't win the public any money-- according to the Action Network, 58 percent of the bets and 58 percent of the money has been going down on the favorite.

The Moneyline has surged upward since the game was announced last Sunday at the selection show. Oregon was offered at -1650; now it's -2100 (the gambler has to put up $2100 to win $100.) This morning a football Nostradamus could get +1100 to bet James Madison; immediately after the ESPN blathering about Alabama in and Notre Dame out the impulsive and compulsive would have settled for the Dukes +950. The Ducks seem increasingly inevitable, no matter the weather. Money talks, but people can and do lose it.

Lanning and the Ducks want a raucous home crowd that makes it hard for the James Madison offense at the line of scrimmage, lots of false starts and illegal motion penalties, miscommunication on the offensive line.