It's okay to be excited. It's okay to be optimistic. It's okay to believe the preseason hype.
While first games can tell us a lot about where a team is going and how it needs to improve, they are not conclusive. A year ago the Ducks stumbled to a 24-14 victory over FCS Idaho, following that up with a narrow escape against Ashton Jeanty and Boise State.
The Ducks looked sloppy. They shot themselves in the foot with penalties and turnovers, and only an alert play by Jayden Limar prevented a disaster at the end of Noah Whittington's fourth-quarter 100-yard kickoff return. A game-changing touchdown would have been a touchback if Limar hadn't picked up the ball.
#1 Jayden Limar Fumble Recovery TD
— Ducks of a Feather (@ducksofafeather) September 13, 2024
For more on Oregon football, check out episode 3 of the Ducks Of A Feather podcast: https://t.co/65AA2dK6Wo pic.twitter.com/v7SPeCSvPc
The Ducks came one heads-up play from blowing their whole season. Instead they won by a field goal over the Broncos and went on to reel off 13 wins in a row before laying an egg in the Rose Bowl. Still, they were Big Ten Champions in their first year in the league.
They got a lot better between Game One and Game Two, and much, much better by October 12 when they beat No. 2 Ohio State at home, 32-31.
First games are not prophetic. Last season Notre Dame lost 16-14 at home in Game Two to Northern Illinois, a MAC team that went 8-5 and ended their season with an overtime win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Irish went undefeated the rest of the way and wound up in the national championship.
In 2016 the Ducks started the season with a 53-28 win over UC Davis and a 44-26 win over Virginia. They proceeded to lose their next five games in a row. Mark Helfrich was fired at the end of a 4-8 season, Oregon's worst in 25 years.
The first few series of a new season can fool you also. In 2023 Oregon opened with some experimental rotations on defense and Portland State went right down the field and scored on their second series, 75 yards in 9 plays.
Message boards erupted. Twitter went berserk (it was still called Twitter then.) Fire the coach. Fire the coordinator. This is the worst Oregon defense since Brady Hoke.
The Ducks wound up winning 81-7. That Oregon team wound up No. 9 in the country in scoring defense, giving up 16.5 points a game and 4.99 yards per play. They would hold six opponents to a touchdown or less.
First games are good for making general impressions and clarifying expectations, but a fan has to do so with a willingness to adjust them later.
That said, there are four main questions Duck fans have about this Oregon team one sleep away from the start of an intriguing year:
This may be Dan Lanning's biggest challenge as a coach as a program-builder. The Ducks have put together three top ten recruiting classes and a top ten portal class, but how does it come together with only four returning starters? Is it even possible to reload so completely? Is Oregon overhyped at No. 7 in the country?
This week FanDuel dropped Oregon's over/under from 10.5 to 9.5. It could be merely an indication that the website was seeing too much traffic on the under and wanted to balance the action, but could it instead mean the smart money has spoken, and they know something we don't know?
How well will Dante Moore handle the starting assignment? Has he grown as a quarterback? How quickly can he find his rhythm? Or will he struggle under the weight of all that expectation?
Last year's offensive line took three games to find cohesiveness and consistency. They allowed seven sacks in their first two games and killed drives with costly and inopportune penalties and assignment breakdowns. Have A'lique Terry, Ryan Walk and Dallas Warmack refined their approach, learned how to coach this unit up better this time around?
The secondary has been advertised as longer, faster and more athletic. Will they contest the ball and get everybody covered? Will they use an embarrassing result in the Rose Bowl as motivation to perform better in big games? How much of a difference maker will Dillon Thieneman be?
When the Ducks take the field against Montana State at 1 p.m. PT Saturday, those questions will start to come into focus. But none of them will be answered completely.