This weekend was a major setback for the Oregon Ducks and their hopes of making a return trip to the College Football Playoff. Part of the non-conference schedule being on the lighter side was because of how difficult Big Ten play can be on a weekly basis, as the conference has won three straight National Championships.
Through two seasons of the College Football Playoff, we haven't seen a 3 loss team earn an at-large bid, meaning that the Ducks would have to go 9-1 the rest of the way. Given the gauntlet that lies ahead of Oregon, the computer models aren't going to give the Ducks a great chance to make the postseason, but Dan Lanning has shown he knows what it takes to lead a team to the Playoff.
How ESPN's Football Power Index views Oregon's Playoff chances
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Oregon’s chances of making the College Football Playoff are now down to just 12.3%. The easiest path to securing a place in the Playoff is by winning the Big Ten, which ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks a 5.2% chance of doing. The most damaging stat is that the FPI gives Oregon just a 0.6% chance of winning the National Championship.
Among the 3 big teams to fall this weekend (Oregon, Ohio State, Oklahoma), Oregon has the worst chance of making the CFP at 12.3% while Oklahoma has a 13.2% chance of doing while Ohio State is still given a 74.5% chance. The reason being is likely the fact that Texas and Michigan are now both Top 25 teams while Oklahoma State is now 1-1 with a loss to Tulsa.
Where Oregon's chances will start to climb is as some of these teams start moving from facing cupcake opponents into conference play, where unbeatens will clash. The Ducks could especially get some help if other teams suffer upsets.
This weekend No. 11 Alabama faces Florida State who everyone is counting out, but the Seminoles also picked off the Crimson Tide last season. No.12 USC faces Rutgers in what could be a look ahead spot with the Oregon vs. USC clash the following weekend. Will Stein has shown that Kentucky could be frisky, and they may have a shot at picking off No. 9 Texas A&M
There's also a pair of Top 25 clashes starting with No. 13 Texas Tech vs No. 22 Houston on Friday Night which will knock a Big 12 team down a notch. No. 8 Ole Miss hosts No. 7 LSU in what will be a highly emotional matchup with Lane Kiffin's return to Oxford which will start a CFP team off with a loss heading into the rest of SEC play.
Oregon can get all the upsets and outside help in the world, but at the end of the day it comes down to the Ducks turning the momentum and handling their own business. If Oregon starts living up to the potential, the Ducks will start pushing other teams to the brink while bolstering their own chances of making the postseason.
The true test starts with going on the road to face No. 12 USC in what may be the biggest game of Lincoln Riley's tenure. With the way UCLA has played under Bob Chesney they may end up in the Top 25 when the Ducks face the Bruins, and it could be a big resume point for the Ducks. Oregon also gets to face No. 6 Ohio State and No. 19 Michigan later in the year with the potential to have major Playoff stakes.
The Ducks have to end up looking in the mirror after the loss, and asking what they want this season to be. If the Ducks bounce back, this team has the talent to beat anyone on the schedule, and they can launch themselves right back into the College Football Playoff hunt.
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